新发展阶段脱贫地区防贫保险的需求偏好 基于选择实验法的实证

孙鲁云

doi:10.12371/j.ynau(s).202404065

新发展阶段脱贫地区防贫保险的需求偏好

—— 基于选择实验法的实证

孙鲁云^{1, 2, 3,}

1.
皖西学院金融与数学学院, 安徽六安 237012
2.
皖西学院数据智能与大别山乡村振兴安徽省哲学社会科学重点实验室, 安徽六安 237012
3.
安徽省中药生态农业工程技术研究中心, 安徽六安 237012

基金项目: 安徽省自然科学基金资助项目“脱贫地区返贫风险评估与防贫保险政策设计——以安徽大别山区为例”（2108085QG306）；安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目“安徽大别山区生态宜居乡村建设研究”（AHSKQ2022D081）；教育部人文社会科学基金项目“基于非广延统计理论的养老基金最优投资问题研究”（23YJA630143）。

详细信息

作者简介:
孙鲁云（1989— ），男，山东东平人，博士，副教授，主要从事农业经济、经济统计的研究

中图分类号: F 840.66
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-04-07
- 修回日期: 2024-05-08
- 录用日期: 2024-05-28
- 网络出版日期: 2024-06-19
- 刊出日期: 2024-10-14

Demand Preference for Poverty Prevention Insurance in the Areas that Have Been Lifted out of Poverty in the New Development Stage：An Empirical Study Based on Choice Experiment Method

SUN Luyun^{1, 2, 3,}

1.
College of Finance and Mathematics, West Anhui University, Lu’ an 237012, China
2.
Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Sciences for Data Intelligence and Rural Revitalization of Dabie Mountains, West Anhui University, Lu’ an 237012, China
3.
Anhui Engineering Research Center for Eco-agriculture of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Lu’ an 237012, China

摘要

摘要:
准确把握新发展阶段脱贫地区农户对防贫保险的需求偏好，对进一步完善防贫保险试点、巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果具有重要意义。采用离散选择实验法，借助混合Logit模型，分析脱贫地区农户对防贫保险关键属性的偏好和支付意愿。研究表明：保险产品的核心属性在决定农户参保意愿方面起着至关重要的作用。具体来说，较高的保额和政府提供的保费补贴能显著提高农户的投保需求，而较高的保险费用和赔付资金的延迟到账明显抑制了农户的参保意愿。此外，农户对不同保险属性的偏好存在显著异质性，尤其体现在对保费补贴和赔付资金到账时间上，而对保险金额则显示出较为一致的高需求。支付意愿分析进一步揭示，农户愿意为较高的保额和更大的保费补贴比例支付额外的保费，但对于赔付资金到账时间的延长表现出显著的排斥态度。
- 防贫保险 /
- 支付意愿 /
- 选择实验 /
- 混合Logit模型
Abstract:
Accurately grasping farmers’ demand preference for poverty prevention insurance in the areas that have been lifted out of poverty in the new development stage is of great significance to further improve the poverty prevention insurance pilot and consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation. Using the discrete choice experiment method and the Mixed Logit model, this study analyzed the preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) of farming households in the areas that have been lifted out of poverty regarding key attributes of poverty prevention insurance. The research indicated that, the core attributes of insurance products played a vital role in determining the willingness of farming households to take up insurance. Specifically, higher coverage amounts and government premium subsidies significantly increased the demand for insurance among farming households, while higher insurance costs and delayed payouts markedly inhibit their willingness to be insured. Moreover, there was significant heterogeneity in the preference for different insurance attributes, particularly regarding premium subsidies and payout timeliness, whereas a more consistent high demand was observed for coverage amounts. WTP analysis further revealed that farming households were willing to pay extra premiums for higher coverage amounts and larger subsidy ratios, reflecting their strong emphasis on these attributes; at the same time, they showed a significant aversion to extended payout times.
- poverty prevention insurance /
- willingness to pay /
- choice experiment /
- Mixed Logit model
①《关于开展“防贫保”综合试点工作的通知》（皖财金〔2021〕339号）规定：实施“3+N”一体式“防贫保”综合保险，各项保险险种（除健康保险）保额在0.4万元~5万元之间；参考费率在0.4‰~3‰之间；脱贫户保费补贴比率50%，监测帮扶对象保费补贴比率90%。

HTML全文

①《关于开展“防贫保”综合试点工作的通知》（皖财金〔2021〕339号）规定：实施“3+N”一体式“防贫保”综合保险，各项保险险种（除健康保险）保额在0.4万元~5万元之间；参考费率在0.4‰~3‰之间；脱贫户保费补贴比率50%，监测帮扶对象保费补贴比率90%。

表 1 选择实验中防贫保险的属性及水平

属性	属性水平
保险金额	2万元、5万元、10万元
保险费率	0.5‰、1.5‰、3‰
保费补贴比率	50%、70%、90%
赔付资金到账时间	15天、30天、45天
注：保险费用=保险金额×保险费率，保险费率在问卷设计时用保险费用体现。

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 示例选择集

属性	方案1	方案2	方案3	方案4
保险金额	20000元	50000元	50000元	以上都不选
保险费用	60元/人	150元/人	75元/人
保费补贴比率	50%	70%	50%
赔付资金到账时间	30天	15天	15天

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 混合Logit模型估计结果

属性变量	系数	标准差
ASC	−10.591	112.885
保险金额	0.249***	0.083
保险费用	−0.010***	0.003
保费补贴比率	0.055***	0.014
赔付资金到账时间	−0.049***	0.016
Sd_保险金额	0.177	0.119
Sd_保费补贴比率	0.045***	0.009
Sd_赔付资金到账时间	0.060***	0.019
Log Likelihood	−252.112
McFadden R²	0.158
AIC	520.224
注：P<0.1，P<0.05，**P<0.01。

下载: 导出CSV

表 4 农户对防贫保险各项属性的支付意愿

属性变量	（1）偏好空间模型		（2）WTP空间模型
属性变量	支付意愿	标准差	支付意愿	标准差
保险金额	25.67	151.02	42.7	23.82
保费补贴比率	5.67	16.98	6.27	1.88
赔付资金到账时间	−5.08	12.77	−8.91	3.41

下载: 导出CSV

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