金璟, 李永前, 张毅, 宋国军, 李英. 橡胶期货价格的期限结构及季节影响研究[J]. 云南农业大学学报(社会科学), 2012, 6(1): 57-61.
引用本文: 金璟, 李永前, 张毅, 宋国军, 李英. 橡胶期货价格的期限结构及季节影响研究[J]. 云南农业大学学报(社会科学), 2012, 6(1): 57-61.
JIN Jing, LI Yong-qian, ZHANG Yi, SONG Guo-jun, LI Ying. An Study on Influences of Term Structure and Seasonality on China's Natural Rubber Future Prices[J]. Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University (Social Science), 2012, 6(1): 57-61.
Citation: JIN Jing, LI Yong-qian, ZHANG Yi, SONG Guo-jun, LI Ying. An Study on Influences of Term Structure and Seasonality on China's Natural Rubber Future Prices[J]. Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University (Social Science), 2012, 6(1): 57-61.

橡胶期货价格的期限结构及季节影响研究

An Study on Influences of Term Structure and Seasonality on China's Natural Rubber Future Prices

  • 摘要: 应用Schwartz单因素模型及季节影响因素模型对我国橡胶期货价格的期限结构和季节性影响进行了实证研究。利用Kalman滤波进行了参数估计,模型结果表明橡胶期货价格长期的期望升值率为正且短期有较强的均值回复性,我国橡胶期货市场绝大部分时间存在期货升水。季节性分析表明我国橡胶期货价格的季节性受国际市场的影响明显。

     

    Abstract: This article applies onefactor model and seasonality model tostudy the term structure and seasonality of Chinas natural rubber futures prices. The Kalman filter methodology is used to estimate the parameters. Resultsshow positive expected appreciation rate of natural rubber futures prices in the long term and strong mean-reversion in the short term. Contango exists innatural rubber futures most of time. Seasonality model shows strong seasonal effects on Chinas natural rubber futures prices by international markets.

     

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