山东省农业经济增长与投入要素动态关联分析

Analysis of Dynamic Correlation between Agricultural Economic Growth and Input Elements in Shandong Province

摘要: 基于2000—2017年山东省时间序列数据，运用向量自回归模型(VAR)分析了农业经济增长与农业投入要素之间的动态关联。研究表明：（1）农业劳动力投入量的增加，对农业经济增长产生了动态促进作用，但是其影响程度逐渐减弱；（2）长期来看，农业机械总动力的增加，对农业经济增长产生了促进作用但存在滞后效应；（3）涉农领域的固定资产投入增加存在滞后效应，但是长期来看对农业经济增长产生了促进作用。

Abstract: This paper establishes a vector autoregressive model (VAR) to explore the dynamic relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural input factors, using time series data of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2017. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the increase of agricultural labor input has a dynamic promoting effect on agricultural economic growth, but its influence is gradually weakened. (2) in the long run, the increase of the total power of agricultural machinery has a promoting effect on agricultural economic growth, but there is a lagging effect. (3) the increase of fixed assets investment in agriculture-related fields has a lagging effect, but it has a long-term promoting effect on agricultural economic growth.