谷洪波, 麻湘琳. 农业重大干旱灾害社会风险的生成与演化研究[J]. 云南农业大学学报(社会科学), 2018, 12(4): 19-29. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-390X(s).2018.04.004
引用本文: 谷洪波, 麻湘琳. 农业重大干旱灾害社会风险的生成与演化研究[J]. 云南农业大学学报(社会科学), 2018, 12(4): 19-29. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-390X(s).2018.04.004
GU Hongbo, MA Xianglin. The Generation and Evolution of Social Risk of Major Agricultural Drought Disaster[J]. Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University (Social Science), 2018, 12(4): 19-29. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-390X(s).2018.04.004
Citation: GU Hongbo, MA Xianglin. The Generation and Evolution of Social Risk of Major Agricultural Drought Disaster[J]. Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University (Social Science), 2018, 12(4): 19-29. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-390X(s).2018.04.004

农业重大干旱灾害社会风险的生成与演化研究

The Generation and Evolution of Social Risk of Major Agricultural Drought Disaster

  • 摘要: 频繁而严重的农业旱灾常常造成社会经济损失、生态环境破坏、人们心理恐慌和社会秩序失衡等诸多社会问题,这些问题如不给予足够重视并加以控制,容易累积演化为社会风险。界定农业旱灾社会风险基本内涵,识别农业旱灾社会风险并进行分类,在此基础上,探寻农业旱灾诱发社会风险的逻辑起因和演化规律,进一步揭示农业重大旱灾社会风险的演化过程与路径,并通过运用改进后的信息仿真模型(BASS模型),对甘肃定西农业重大旱灾事件引发社会风险的典型案例进行实证分析,提出对策建议,以期更好地为防范农业旱灾社会风险演化及应对潜在社会危机提供治理依据。

     

    Abstract: The frequent and serious agricultural drought often cause social and economic losses, ecological environment destruction, people psychological panic and social order imbalance, and many other social problems, if these problems didn't be given enough attention and control, it will be easy to accumulate and evolve into social risk. Define the meaning of agricultural drought society risk, identify agricultural drought society risk and classified, on this basis, the logic causes and evolution law of agricultural drought inducing social risk are explored. The evolution and path of society risk of major agricultural drought is further revealed, and then, by using the improved BASS model, the typical case of social risk caused by major agriculture drought in dingxi of gansu is empirically analyzed, at last, it puts forward some countermeasures in order to better prevent the social risk evolution of agricultural drought and to cope with the potential social crisis to provide the governance basis.

     

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