集体林权改革背景下福建省木材价格影响因素分析

Influencing Factors of the Timber Price Fluctuation of Fujian Province under the Condition of Collective Forest Reform

摘要: 2003年起福建省率先开始实施集体林权制度改革。随着集体林权改革的逐步深化，林业生产市场化程度不断提高，因此研究木材价格的波动及其影响因素逐渐成为热点。引用20032015年福建省数据，以木材生产成本、流通成本、天气因素、木材产量、木材进出口等作为研究对象，利用因子分析法和多元回归模型对上述数据指标进行分析。结果表明，目前福建省木材价格受到生产成本，加工企业生产原料需求以及原木进口量的显著影响。可以通过降低成本，优化经营主体和贸易机制等手段来稳定木材价格。

Abstract: Fujian province introduced the collective forest reform in China firstly in 2003. With the reform deepening, the marketization has been constantly improved. Therefore, the related issues on timber price become the research focus. With the influencing factors on Fujian, including production costs, circulation costs, timber yield, import and export, weather conditions, from 2003 to 2015 as basic data, factor analysis and multiple regression model were analyzed. The results showed that timber price is influenced by production cost, producer' good demand, timber import volume, obviously. It can stabilize timber price by cost reduction, manage subject optimization, trade mechanism, etc.