Abstract:
The pork prices, pig feed prices and egg prices monthly data from 2000 to 2013 of Yunnan Province have been selected as the research object in this paper. The authors first Census X12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filtering method to deal with pork prices, obtain the pork price change characteristics and regularity in Yunnan Province. The results revealed that: From a long-term trend, the pork prices in Yunnan Province have shown a rising tendency with three big fluctuations in nearly 14 years; for the annual fluctuation trend, there has been a certain periodic trend that the pork prices declined in the first quarter, and after bottomed out in the second quarter there was a slow rebound, the highest price usually appeared at the end of the third quarter and early in the fourth quarter. Then stationary test, least-squares regression and Granger causality test are used to investigate the influence factors of pork price in Yunnan Province. The analysis of influence factors found that pig feed prices and egg prices fluctuation affect pork prices largely. Finally, the authors proposed policy recommendations according to the statistical analysis results.