李文龙, 张洪宇, 李焕娇, 等. 中国农业高质量发展水平评价、时间演进及空间相关性分析[J]. 云南农业大学学报(社会科学), 2024, 18(0): 1−9. doi: 10.12371/j.ynau(s).202403124
引用本文: 李文龙, 张洪宇, 李焕娇, 等. 中国农业高质量发展水平评价、时间演进及空间相关性分析[J]. 云南农业大学学报(社会科学), 2024, 18(0): 1−9. doi: 10.12371/j.ynau(s).202403124
LI Wenlong, ZHANG Hongyu, LI Huanjiao, QI Jianling. Evaluation of Agricultural High-quality Development Level, Regional Difference and Spatial Correlation Analysis in China[J]. Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University (Social Science). DOI: 10.12371/j.ynau(s).202403124
Citation: LI Wenlong, ZHANG Hongyu, LI Huanjiao, QI Jianling. Evaluation of Agricultural High-quality Development Level, Regional Difference and Spatial Correlation Analysis in China[J]. Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University (Social Science). DOI: 10.12371/j.ynau(s).202403124

中国农业高质量发展水平评价、时间演进及空间相关性分析

Evaluation of Agricultural High-quality Development Level, Regional Difference and Spatial Correlation Analysis in China

  • 摘要: 农业高质量发展是农业发展质量的高级状态和最优状态,是建设“农业强国”目标的内在要求,在保障国家粮食安全、全面推动乡村振兴等方面发挥着不可替代的作用。本文基于新发展理念,从创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五个维度构建农业高质量发展指标体系,并基于2012—2021年宏观数据,测算我国30个省份的农业高质量发展水平,利用非参数核密度估计及空间马尔科夫链分析农业高质量发展水平时间演进特征分布,通过莫兰指数分析各省份之间的空间关系。得出如下结论:(1)我国农业高质量发展水平近年来持续上升,年增长率约为1.751%,三大地区的农业高质量发展水平存在差异,呈由东到西递减的趋势。(2)省域间农业高质量发展水平差异不断缩小,各省农业高质量发展水平一定程度上可以向邻近状态转移。(3)各省农业高质量发展水平呈显著的空间正相关关系,空间聚集性不断增强,空间聚集分化现象有向高—高集聚发展的趋势。据此提出了优化农业发展环境、加强区域交流合作、建立风险评估预警机制、落实协调发展战略等建议。

     

    Abstract: The high-quality development of agriculture is the advanced and optimal state of the quality of agricultural development, and it is the inherent requirement of the goal of building an “Agricultural powerful country” , it plays an irreplaceable role in ensuring national food security and promoting rural revitalization in an all-round way. Based on the new development concept, this paper constructs a high-quality agricultural development index system from the five dimensions of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing, and based on the 2012-2021 macro-data, non-parametric kernel density estimation and spatial Mark off chain were used to analyze the time evolution characteristics of agricultural high-quality development level in 30 provinces of our country, the Molain index analyses spatial relationships between provinces. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the level of agricultural high-quality development in our country has been increasing continuously in recent years, the annual growth rate is about 1.751% , there are differences in the level of agricultural high-quality development in the three regions, showing a decreasing trend from east to west. (2) the difference of agricultural high-quality development level among provinces is narrowing, and the agricultural high-quality development level of each province can be transferred to the neighboring state to a certain extent. (3) there is a significant positive spatial correlation between the development level of high-quality agriculture in all provinces, and the spatial clustering is increasing. The phenomenon of spatial clustering and differentiation has a tendency of high-high clustering. Some suggestions were put forward, such as optimizing agricultural development environment, strengthening regional exchange and cooperation, establishing risk assessment and early warning mechanism, and implementing coordinated development strategy.

     

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