长三角地区粮食供需平衡研究

Analysis on Grian Supply and Demand Balance of Yangtze River Delta

  • 摘要: 长三角地区粮食供需平衡问题不仅关系到区域粮食安全,同时也关系到区域经济发展与社会稳定,更是国家安全的重要组成部分。基于历史数据揭示长三角地区粮食生产和消费演变的轨迹,同时对长三角地区粮食生产和消费情况进行预测,展望2021—2030年区域粮食供需情况;进而从粮食生产安全机制、流通安全机制、产销协作机制、区域应急机制、有效监管机制等方面构建区域粮食供需平衡安全机制;并针对所构建的供需平衡安全机制,从思想观念、科技创新、人才、财政金融、协同协作等方面提出相应保障措施。

     

    Abstract: This study focus on grian supply and demand balance of Yangtze River Delta. The research reflects the development series in time of grain production and consumption based on historic data, and forecasts the supplies and demands of grain on Yangtze River Delta in 2021—2030 by using ARMA model; and then constructing a framework of security mechanism of supply-demand balance from five perspectives such as safety of grain production, distribution, coordination of production and marketing, regional emergency, and effective regulation. Aiming at security mechanism, the article put forward the safeguard measures from ideas, technological innovation, talents, fiscal and financial, collaboration and cooperation.

     

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