新型城镇化与农业现代化动态协调发展关系研究来自广东省湛江市时间序列数据(2000—2017)

The Dynamic Coordinated Development of New Urbanization and Agricultural Modernization: Based on Time Series Data of Zhanjiang City (2000−2017)

  • 摘要: 明确新型城镇化与农业现代化动态协调关系,有利于指导并加快两化进程,对于国家建设和社会发展具有重大意义。基于新型城镇化和农业现代化测评体系,利用湛江市2000—2017年时间序列数据,在测算协调度和构建VAR模型后发现,湛江市两化发展多年来保持高度协调状态,但近期新型城镇化滞后于农业现代化,并且差距在不断加大;二者表现为长期均衡的变化特征和单向的Granger因果联系;新型城镇化水平过低,无法为农业现代化建设提供强大动力;农业现代化发展较为领先,对新型城镇化的推动效果显著。从实证结果得到相应启示:着力消除影响城镇化滞后农业的因素,不断强化农业对城镇化的推动效应,加快城乡统筹促进两化协调发展。

     

    Abstract: It is of great significance for national construction and social development to make clear the dynamic coordinated relationship between new urbanization and agricultural modernization, which is conducive to guiding and accelerating the process of the two. The evaluation system of new urbanization and agricultural modernization was constructed by using time series data of zhanjiang city from 2000 to 2017. After calculating the coordination degree and building the VAR model, it is found that the relationship has maintained a highly coordinated state for many years. But new urbanization lags behind agricultural modernization and the gap is widening. They have a long-term equilibrium relationship and a one-way Granger causality relationship. The new urbanization level is too low to provide strong impetus for agricultural modernization. Agricultural modernization is in the lead and has a significant impact on new urbanization. According to the empirical conclusions, the city should make efforts to eliminate the factors that affect backward agriculture in urbanization and constantly strengthen the impact of agriculture on urbanization and speed up coordinated development between urban and rural areas.

     

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