Abstract: The input-output index data of 16 cities in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2017 are taken as the research object, data envelopment analysis (DEA) and Malmquist index as the research methods. The effectiveness of agricultural circular economy development in 16 cities of Anhui Province is systematically analyzed. Finally, the Tobit model is used to analyze the effect of agricultural circular economy development. The results show that: (1) the comprehensive efficiency of agricultural circular economy development in Anhui Province reaches 0.956 in 2011—2017; (2) the progress of agricultural technology in Anhui Province has promoted the efficiency of agricultural circular economy development; (3) the unreasonable allocation of agricultural machinery leads to the investment redundancy in ineffective areas of DEA. The main reasons are: (4) The development efficiency of agricultural circular economy is positively correlated with the structure of agricultural industry, per capita GDP of agriculture, unit yield of grain and effective utilization rate of chemical fertilizer, while negatively correlated with effective irrigation rate.