婚姻稳定性及其对扶贫工作的启示——基于云南7县家庭调查数据的分析

Family Poverty and Divorce Risk and Its Implications for Poverty Alleviation: Based on the Survey Data of Poor Families in 7 Counties of Yunnan Province

  • 摘要: 基于云南省7个贫困县的调查数据,运用Cox比例风险模型和分层Cox比例风险模型分析家庭贫困程度、劳务输出、个人增收等扶贫实践对婚姻稳定性的影响。结果发现:家庭贫困加剧了婚姻脆弱性。贫困程度越深,家庭收入越低,婚姻稳定性越差;个人收入对婚姻稳定性有非线性影响。在低收入阶段,收入的增加显著降低离婚风险,在高收入阶段,收入的增加推高了离婚风险。夫妻收入差距的扩大可导致离婚风险上升;"劳务输出"作为一项重要的脱贫实践在增加家庭收入的同时,也对婚姻稳定性产生一定的负向影响,且贫困程度越深,其负向影响越大。政策启示:扶贫决策除了要考虑经济指标外,也需要兼顾婚姻稳定和家庭和谐,并将其作为评价脱贫成效的重要指标和约束条件,充分发挥精准扶贫政策效果,促进贫困家庭幸福感和个人获得感的全面跃升。

     

    Abstract: Based on the survey data of 7 poverty-stricken counties in Yunnan Province, this paper uses COX proportional hazard model to analyze the impact of family poverty, labor export, personal income and other poverty-alleviation practices on marital stability. The results show that family poverty increases the vulnerability of marriage. The deeper the poverty level, the lower the family income, the worse the marital stability; the influence of personal income on marital stability is a non-linear process. In the low-income stage, income growth can significantly reduce the risk of divorce. In the high-income stage, income growth has a negative impact on marital stability. In the practice of poverty alleviation, the increase of couple's unilateral income leads to the widening of income gap, which leads to the increase of divorce risk. As an important poverty alleviation measure, "labor export" has a negative impact on marital stability while increasing family income. Families with deep poverty are more negatively affected by migrant workers; narrowing the distance between intermarriages and obtaining marriage certificates can effectively reduce the risk of divorce; policy implications:the core of poverty management is to promote family happiness and personal sense of acquisition. In order to improve the effectiveness of poverty alleviation policy and prevent poverty alleviation, family stability and harmony should be taken as indicators and constraints for poverty alleviation, and the choice of poverty alleviation path should be optimized.

     

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