中国农村人口老龄化的区域差异分析——基于聚类方法的实证检验

The Regional Differences of China's Rural Population Aging: An Empirical Analysis Based on Clustering Method

  • 摘要: 利用2000年和2010年中国农村人口普查和经济发展的相关数据,通过动态聚类方法实证检验了我国农村人口老龄化的区域差异。从两次聚类结果可发现,中国农村人口老龄化程度在不断加深,但从区域看,北京、天津、上海这三个直辖市的农村人口一直处在重度老龄化的状态,东部经济比较发达的省份农村人口属于中度老龄化状态且变化不大,而变化比较大的是欠发达的中西部省区的农村人口,在2000年的中西部省区农村有很多省份还没有进入老龄化,而到了2010年则普遍进入老龄化且都属于轻度老龄化地区。

     

    Abstract: Based on the data of rural population census and economic development in 2000 and 2010 in China, this paper analyzes the regional differences of population aging in rural China by dynamic cluster method. From the two clustering results, it can be found that the rural areas of Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai have been in the area of severe aging, while the rural areas in the more developed eastern areas have not changed much in heavy areas.The most notable changes are the underdeveloped central and western regions. In the central and western regions in 2000, many identities have not yet entered the aging population, but by 2010, they generally entered the aging population,and all belong to mild aging area.

     

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