我国生猪价格波动及其成因分析

Fluctuation Characteristics and Causes of Hog Price in China

  • 摘要: 运用H-P滤波法和EGARCH模型对我国2000年1月-2017年8月的生猪价格波动特性进行分析,结果表明2012年以来我国生猪价格波动趋势出现短期负增长的新特征,同时波动周期长度趋短且具有非对称性。从供求关系、货币供给和物价指数三个方面实证分析生猪价格波动成因以及影响程度。供给层面角度,生产成本不断上升,从源头推动生猪价格趋势性上涨,散户仍占主体的养殖结构,其频繁而又大规模调整养殖规模的行为加剧了生猪价格的波动幅度;需求层面的人口总数和人均收入的增加扩大了生猪市场的需求量,促使生猪价格持续上涨,以鸡蛋为代表的猪肉替代品价格则对生猪价格波动有一定的制衡作用。Johansen协整检验解释了生猪价格波动对于货币供给具有"超调"效应,脉冲响应函数显示物价指数对生猪价格波动有一定的正向影响。本文认为平抑生猪价格异常波动应当完善相关调控政策以深化生猪供给侧改革,推进生猪养殖规模化和专业化发展以及加强金融宏观调控以避免生猪价格的"超调"。

     

    Abstract: This paper applies the H-P Filter and EGARCH model to analyze volatility characteristics of China hog price from January 2000 to August 2017. The results show that the trend of fluctuation in China hog price appears new characteristics of short-term negative growth since 2012, meanwhile fluctuation cycle length is becoming shorter and has asymmetry. Then this article makes empirical analysis on the causes of fluctuation of hog price as well as the degree of influence from the following three aspects:the supply-demand relationship, the money supply and the price index. In the supply aspect, rising production costs make effect from the source on promoting hog prices rising trend, and the fact that retail investors still account for the main body of farming structure, their frequent and large-scale adjustment of breeding behavior exacerbates the hog price volatility. On the angle of demand, the increase of population and per capita income expands the market demand of hog resulting in the prices rising continuously. What's more, pork replacements as eggs, have some checks and balances on hog price fluctuation. Johansen cointegration test explains the hog price fluctuations in the money supply has "overshoot" effect, and impulse response function shows that the price index of hog price fluctuations has certain positive influence. The paper holds the view that perfecting the relevant regulations to deepen supply-side reform of breeding, advancing the scale and professional development in breeding, strengthening financial macro-control and accelerating the construction of hog futures market should be done to tame price abnormal fluctuations in order to in avoid the "overshoot".

     

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