临时收储政策改革对农产品市场化影响实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Temporary Purchase and Storage Policy Reforms on Agricultural Products' Marketization

  • 摘要: 目前大豆、棉花和玉米已相继取消了实施多年的临时收储政策,这些农产品的价格已全面实现市场化。本文主要研究了玉米临时收储政策改革前后玉米和玉米淀粉的价格传导,并分析了玉米期货的波动风险情况,以及国内外农产品期货市场联系程度变化。利用格兰杰因果检验,发现改革后玉米价格有助于解释玉米淀粉价格的未来变化;利用GARCH模型分析玉米期货价格在临时收储政策改革前后波动性的变化情况,发现在加入了改革这个变量之后,玉米期货市场的波动性有小幅上升,但显著性不强;对改革前后国内外20种主要农产品期货价格数据构建网络模型,并研究了对应的网络拓扑结构,发现改革后网络的聚集系数、平均度和网络密度均相应增加。

     

    Abstract: With the cancellation of Temporary Purchase and Storage Policy (TPSP) on soybean, cotton and corn one by one, which has been enforced for many years, the price of these agricultural products has realized full marketization. In this paper, we study the price transmission of corn and corn starch before and after temporary purchase and storage policy reform on corn, and analyze the risk of volatile price with corn futures contracts and the change of agricultural futures market at home and abroad. First, by using Granger test, we find that the price of corn is the Granger reason of corn starch after the cancellation of TPSP on corn. Secondly, with GARCH model on the price of corn futures, we have that TPSP on corn results in slightly higher volatility of the corn futures market with a low level of statistical significance. Finally, by using network model,we study the topological structure of 20 agricultural products at home and abroad futures price network before and after TPSP, which shows clustering? coefficient, average degree and network density all have increased.

     

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