我国农业经济增长与农业面源污染关系的实证研究——基于1995—2015年的数据分析

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Agricultural Economic Growth on Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution in China: Data Analysis Based on 1995-2015

  • 摘要: 准确把握我国现阶段农业面源污染与农业经济增长之间的关系,了解我国农业面源污染所处阶段,有利于国家相关部门采取恰当措施有效防治。选取我国19952015年农业面源污染指标及经济增长数据,基于EKC理论,对我国的农业经济增长与农业面源污染进行计量分析。研究发现,造成农业面源污染的四大类污染源使用量和排放量与农业经济增长之间分别呈正N型以及倒U型曲线变化,并且不同污染源的使用与排放量分别处于曲线的不同阶段。农药施用量趋于平缓趋势,化肥使用量和农膜使用量有上升趋势,家禽粪便排放量有减少趋势。最后,结合我国农业面源污染治理现状,提出从农药污染源、化肥污染源、农用薄膜污染源以及家禽污染源四个方面来治理的政策建议。

     

    Abstract: Accurately grasping the relationship between the agricultural source pollution and agricultural economic growth at the present stage of China, and understanding the stage of China's agricultural source pollution, will help the government taking appropriate measures to prevent and control the pollution. Based on the EKC theory, this paper selects the indicators of Agricultural source pollution and economic growth data from 1995 to 2015, and analyzes the agricultural economic growth and the agricultural surface pollution in China. Study found that the four types of pollution sources that cause agricultural pollution are N-type and inverted U-shaped respectively. And the use and discharge of different pollution sources are at different stages of the curve. The use of pesticide tends to be gentle, the use of fertilizer and the use of agricultural film is increasing, emission of poultry droppings is falling. Finally, combined with the current situation of China's agricultural source pollution control, this paper puts forward the policy suggestions from four aspects:pesticide pollution source, fertilizer pollution source, agricultural film pollution source and poultry pollution source.

     

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