云南省入境旅游与进出口贸易互动关系研究

The Interactive Relationship between Inbound Tourism and Import and Export Trade in Yunnan

  • 摘要: 基于19962016年海外旅游者入境旅游人次与进出口贸易额的年度数据,对云南省入境旅游与进出口贸易的互动关系进行实证研究。结果表明:(1)入境旅游与进出口贸易之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;(2)入境旅游与进口贸易互为格兰杰原因,入境旅游与出口贸易之间不存在格兰杰因果关系;(3)入境旅游的冲击对进出口贸易的影响较大,促进作用显著,入境旅游对进出口贸易的冲击以正向响应为主,进出口贸易对入境旅游有明显拉动作用;(4)入境旅游与进口贸易的发展主要依赖于其自身贡献,出口贸易的发展受入境旅游与进口贸易影响较大。根据实证检验结果,提出云南省发展入境旅游与进出口贸易的建议。

     

    Abstract: Based on the annual data of overseas tourists' inbound tourism trips and import and export volume from 1996 to 2016, this paper empirically studies the interactive relationship between entry tourism and import and export trade in Yunnan. The results showed that:(1) there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between inbound tourism and import and export trade; (2) inbound tourism and import trade are granger reasons for each other, there is no granger causality between inbound tourism and export trade; (3) The impact of inbound tourism has a significant influence on import and export trade, and the promotion effect is significant. The impact of inbound tourism on import and export trade is mainly positive, and import and export trade has obvious pulling effect on inbound tourism;(4) The development of inbound tourism and import trade depend mainly on its own contribution. The development of export trade is greatly influenced by inbound tourism and import trade. According to the result of empirical test, this paper puts forward the suggestions of developing inbound tourism and import and export trade in Yunnan Province.

     

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