农业新质生产力对农业产业链韧性的 影响机制研究基于新型农业经营主体的中介效应分析

The Impact Mechanism of Agricultural New Quality Productivity on the Resilience of the Agricultural Industry Chain: An Analysis of the Mediation Effect Based on New Agricultural Operations

  • 摘要: 农业新质生产力为进一步培育和壮大新型农业经营主体提供新契机,也为增强农业产业链韧性提供重要路径。本文基于2011—2024年全国31个省区市的面板数据,通过双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型与门槛效应模型探究农业新质生产力对农业产业链韧性的影响机制。研究发现:农业新质生产力能够显著增强农业产业链韧性,且在低农业新质生产力发展水平地区与粮食主产区的提升效果更为突出;农业新质生产力能够通过促进新型农业经营主体发展完善生产关系增强农业产业链韧性;财政支农政策在农业新质生产力增强农业产业链韧性的过程中存在边际效应递增的非线性特征,随着财政支农水平的提升,农业新质生产力提升农业产业链韧性的效果逐渐增强。据此提出基于“发展阶段—功能定位”精准发展农业新质生产力、建设更高质量的新型农业经营主体与推进财政支农政策精准化,以进一步增强农业产业链韧性。

     

    Abstract: Agricultural new quality productivity provides new opportunities for further cultivating and strengthening new agricultural operations, and also offers a crucial pathway for enhancing the resilience of the agricultural industry chain. Based on panel data from 31 provinces across China from 2011 to 2024, this paper employed the two-way fixed effect model, mediation effect model, and threshold effect model to explore the impact mechanisms through which agricultural new quality productivity influenced the resilience of the agricultural industry chain. The findings revealed that agricultural new quality productivity significantly strengthened the resilience of the agricultural industry chain, and this enhancement effect was more pronounced in regions with low development levels of agricultural new quality productivity and in major grain-producing areas. Agricultural new quality productivity could enhance the resilience of the agricultural industry chain by promoting the development of new agricultural operations and improving the relations of production. Fiscal support for agriculture policies exhibited a nonlinear characteristic of increasing marginal effects in the process by which agricultural new quality productivity bolstered the resilience of the agricultural industry chain. As the level of fiscal support for agriculture increased, the effect of agricultural new quality productivity on improving resilience gradually intensified. Accordingly, it is proposed to precisely develop agricultural new quality productivity based on the “development stage - functional positioning” framework, build higher-quality new agricultural operations, and advance the precision of fiscal support policies for agriculture, so as to further strengthen the resilience of the agricultural industry chain.

     

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