农村交通基础设施建设的县域消费扩张效应基于四好农村路示范县的准自然实验

The County-level Consumption Expansion Effect of Rural Transportation Infrastructure Construction: A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on the “Four Good Rural Roads” Demonstration Counties

  • 摘要: 扩大农村消费对构建新发展格局具有关键性作用,然而农村交通基础设施滞后制约着农业县消费市场。研究以“四好农村路”全国示范县创建政策为准自然实验,基于2013—2023年中国县域面板数据,运用PSM-DID方法系统考察了农村交通基础设施改善对农业县消费扩张的影响,并进一步分析了其因果效应、作用机制及空间溢出。研究发现:“四好农村路”示范县创建使农业县社会消费品零售总额平均提升约9.75%,人均消费水平提升约9.6%;机制分析表明,政策通过提升城镇居民可支配收入,有效促进促进县域消费扩张;异质性分析显示,西部地区和高农业依赖度县域获得的消费扩张效应更为显著;示范县创建对邻近非示范县的消费增加具有显著的正向溢出效应。该研究为优化农村交通基础设施投资布局、释放县域消费潜力提供了经验证据,对完善扩大消费效应机制具有一定的政策启示。

     

    Abstract: Expanding rural consumption plays a critical role in building a new development paradigm; however, the lagging rural transportation infrastructure constrains the consumer market of agricultural counties. This study took the national demonstration county creation policy for “Four Good Rural Roads” as a quasi-natural experiment, and based on China’s county-level panel data from 2013 to 2023, employed the PSM-DID method to systematically examine the impact of rural transportation infrastructure improvement on consumption expansion in agricultural counties, and further analyzed its causal effects, mechanisms, and spatial spillovers. The findings were as follows: the creation of “Four Good Rural Roads” demonstration counties raised the total retail sales of consumer goods in agricultural counties by approximately 9.75% on average, and increased the per capita consumption level by approximately 9.6%; mechanism analysis indicated that the policy effectively promoted county-level consumption expansion by increasing the disposable income of urban residents; heterogeneity analysis showed that the counties in western regions and those with a high degree of agricultural dependence experienced more significant consumption expansion effects; the creation of demonstration counties had a significant positive spillover effect on consumption growth in neighboring non-demonstration counties. This study provides empirical evidence for optimizing the investment layout of rural transportation infrastructure and unlocking county-level consumption potential, and offers certain policy implications for improving the mechanism for expanding consumption effects.

     

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