Abstract:
Driven by the dual factors of the upgrading of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area and the expansion of the global coffee consumption market, the strategic supporting role of China-ASEAN coffee trade in regional economic development has become increasingly prominent. Based on the coffee trade data between China and ASEAN countries from 2014 to 2024 extracted from the UN Comtrade database, this paper employed social network analysis (SNA) and the quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) to examine the evolution of the China-ASEAN coffee trade network and its influencing factors. The findings indicated that: (1) In terms of network structure, China, Vietnam, Singapore, and Thailand occupied core positions in the trade network. (2) At the overall network level, the China-ASEAN coffee trade network was tightly connected with strong connectivity, with the “island” effect largely eliminated, exhibiting typical “small-world” characteristics and dominated by reciprocal bilateral trade relationships. (3) In terms of nodal characteristics, Singapore, Indonesia, and Vietnam occupied central hub positions in the network and served as key bridging functions; China’s participation and influence in regional coffee trade had steadily increased, playing an intermediary role. (4) Regarding influencing factors, economic scale, geographical proximity, coffee consumption, and coffee production positively facilitated China–ASEAN coffee trade, while population size and tariff rates exerted suppressing effect. Based on these findings, this paper proposes policy recommendations including anchoring core trade status and build a diversified trade system, deepening regional trade linkages and establishing a mutually beneficial two-way pattern, expanding cross-border circulation networks and taking the lead in formulating regional rules, and facilitating coordinated layout across the entire industrial chain and elevating the international discourse power of industries.