Abstract: Based on provincial panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2013 to 2022, this study empirically analyzed the impact and its underlying mechanisms of agricultural new quality productivity on agricultural carbon emissions, using a two-way fixed effects model and instrumental variable methods. The findings showed that the development of agricultural new quality productivity significantly inhibited agricultural carbon emissions, with improvements in agricultural total factor productivity and the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure played partial mediating roles, while the scale of agricultural operations exerted a positive moderating effect. Accordingly, policy recommendations are proposed, including accelerating the cultivation of agricultural new quality productivity, promoting green upgrading of the industrial structure, and deepening large-scale agricultural operations, to facilitate the low-carbon transition of agriculture.