农产品上行政策实施的经济增长效应基于“互联网+”农产品出村进城工程的实证分析

The Economic Growth Effects of Implementation of Agricultural Products upward Policies: An Empirical Analysis Based on the “Internet+” Project for Agricultural Products Moving from Rural to Urban Areas

  • 摘要: 推动农产品上行是激发县域产业活力的关键举措,对县域经济持续增长具有重要意义。本文将“互联网+”农产品出村进城工程的实施视为农产品上行的准自然实验,基于2010—2023年中国1 796个县域的平衡面板数据,构建双重差分模型识别农产品上行政策实施对县域经济增长的影响。研究发现,农产品上行政策实施显著促进了县域经济增长,且这一效应在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析表明,吸引工商资本流入、促进产业升级和激发消费活力是农产品上行政策促进经济增长效应的重要途径。进一步分析表明,农产品上行政策实施具有正向空间溢出效应,有助于促进地区经济协同增长。本文基于实证分析所得出的有关农产品上行政策实施的经济增长效应的结论,对后续农产品上行政策的完善及县域经济高质量发展具有一定的借鉴价值。

     

    Abstract: Promoting the upward flow of agricultural products is a key measure for stimulating industrial vitality in county-level economies and holds significant implications for their sustained growth. This paper treated the implementation of the “Internet+” Agricultural Products from Rural to Urban Areas Program as a quasi-natural experiment for agricultural product upstreaming, and constructed a difference-in-differences model based on balanced panel data from 1 796 counties in China spanning from 2010 to 2023 to identify the causal effect of this policy on county-level economic growth. The findings indicated that the implementation of the agricultural product upstreaming policy significantly promoted county-level economic growth, and this effect remained robust across a series of robustness checks. Mechanism analysis revealed that attracting industrial and commercial capital inflows, facilitating industrial upgrading, and stimulating consumption vitality were important channels through which the policy generated its growth effects. Further analysis showed that the policy exhibited positive spatial spillover effects, contributing to coordinated regional economic growth. This paper confirmed the economic growth effects of agricultural products upstreaming policy implementation, offering certain insights for the refinement of subsequent agricultural product upstreaming policies and the high-quality development of county-level economies.

     

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