农业全要素生产率对甘肃农民增收的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity on Increasing Income of Farmers in Gansu Province

  • 摘要: 在推进农业高质量发展和促进农民持续增收的背景下,农业全要素生产率提升是否以及如何影响农民收入,成为亟需回答的重要问题。本文基于2013—2023年甘肃省地级市面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型,从长期技术进步积累视角系统考察农业全要素生产率提升对农民收入增长的影响,并通过稳健性检验、异质性分析及机制检验对研究结论进行进一步验证。研究结果表明:第一,农业全要素生产率对农民收入具有显著的正向促进作用,该结论在更换模型设定、补充控制变量、采用不同标准误估计方法以及剔除特殊城市样本后依然稳健;第二,农业全要素生产率对农民收入的影响具有显著异质性,其增收效应主要体现在农业收入渠道,而对非农收入的直接影响并不显著;第三,农业全要素生产率能够显著提升农业劳动生产率,从而为农民收入增长提供重要的潜在作用机制支持。本文的研究结论为通过提升农业全要素生产率促进农民持续增收、推动农业高质量发展提供了有益的经验证据和政策启示。

     

    Abstract: Against the backdrop of promoting high-quality agricultural development and sustaining the increase in farmers’ income, whether and how the improvement of agricultural total factor productivity affects farmers’ income has become an important question that urgently needs to be answered. Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities in Gansu Province from 2013 to 2023, this paper adopts a two-way fixed effects model to systematically examine the impact of agricultural TFP improvement on farmers’ income growth from the perspective of long-term technological progress accumulation. The research conclusions are further verified through robustness tests, heterogeneity analysis, and mechanism tests. The research results show that: firstly, agricultural TFP has a significant positive effect on farmers’ income, and this conclusion remains robust after changing model settings, adding control variables, adopting different standard error estimation methods, and excluding special city samples; secondly, the impact of agricultural TFP on farmers’ income is significantly heterogeneous, and its income-increasing effect is mainly reflected in agricultural income channels, while the direct impact on non-agricultural income is not significant; thirdly, agricultural TFP can significantly improve agricultural labor productivity, thus providing important potential mechanism support for the growth of farmers’ income. The research conclusions of this paper provide useful empirical evidence and policy implications for promoting sustained income growth of farmers and driving high-quality agricultural development through improving agricultural TFP.

     

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