Abstract: Enhancing grain production resilience is not only essential for addressing multiple risk challenges but also a key safeguard for achieving national food security objectives. Based on provincial panel data from China covering 2004–2023, this study measures grain production resilience using the entropy method and employs an intensity-based difference-in-differences model to examine the impact and underlying mechanisms of policy-oriented agricultural credit guarantees. The results indicate that such guarantees significantly enhance grain production resilience, and this conclusion remains robust under a series of robustness checks. Mechanism analysis shows that policy-oriented credit guarantees improve resilience by optimizing the allocation structure of fiscal expenditures, increasing the level of agricultural mechanization, and facilitating land transfer. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the positive effect is more pronounced in major grain-producing regions and in areas with lower levels of financial development.