“两山”理论下云南省农业碳排放演变趋势及驱动因素分析

Analysis of the Evolution Trend and Driving Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Yunnan Province under the “Two Mountains” Theory

  • 摘要: 农业低碳化发展是构筑“绿水青山”与实现“金山银山”的生态基础。本文采用IPCC碳排放模型测算农业碳排放总量,并运用Kaya恒等式对碳排放驱动因素进行结构分解,旨在系统揭示云南省农业碳排放的演变规律与驱动机制,为区域农业碳减排提供科学依据。研究发现:2004年—2022年云南省农业碳排放量总体呈缓慢下降趋势,碳排放环比增速逐年减缓;从农业生产投入来看,化肥使用量为云南省农业生产最大排放源,其次是农膜使用量;农业生产率水平和城镇化水平是农业碳减排的主要驱动因素,而农业产业结构调整对农业碳减排的影响较为有限,且地区经济发展水平对农业碳减排具有负向驱动作用。结论:自2017年以来云南省农业碳减排成效显著,农业产业结构调整有所优化,但地区经济发展与农业碳减排仍具挑战。因此,应从提升农业生产效率,拓展农产品价值实现机制,以绿色发展促进农业产业结构调整,以及走新型城镇化道路几个维度协同推进农业碳减排。

     

    Abstract: The low-carbon development of agriculture is the ecological foundation for building “green mountains and clear waters” and realizing “golden mountains and silver mountains” . This article uses the IPCC carbon emission model to calculate the total agricultural carbon emissions, and uses the Kaya identity to structurally decompose the driving factors of carbon emissions. The aim is to systematically reveal the evolution law and driving mechanism of agricultural carbon emissions in Yunnan Province, and provide scientific basis for regional agricultural carbon reduction. Research has found that from 2004 to 2022, the overall agricultural carbon emissions in Yunnan Province showed a slow downward trend, and the month on month growth rate of carbon emissions slowed down year by year; From the perspective of agricultural production inputs, the use of chemical fertilizers is the largest emission source for agricultural production in Yunnan Province, followed by the use of agricultural films; The level of agricultural productivity and urbanization are the main driving factors for agricultural carbon reduction, while the impact of agricultural industrial structure adjustment on agricultural carbon reduction is relatively limited, and the level of regional economic development has a negative driving effect on agricultural carbon reduction. Conclusion: Since 2017, Yunnan Province has achieved significant results in reducing agricultural carbon emissions, and the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure has been optimized. However, regional economic development and agricultural carbon reduction still face challenges. Therefore, efforts should be made to improve agricultural production efficiency, expand the mechanism for realizing the value of agricultural products, promote the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure through green development, and jointly promote agricultural carbon reduction through the path of new urbanization.

     

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