Abstract: To empirically examine the enabling effect, internal mechanisms, and regional disparities of agricultural new quality productive forces on agricultural transformation and upgrading, this study utilizes panel data from 30 provinces in China spanning 2014 to 2023. Evaluation indicator systems for both constructs were established, and a comprehensive empirical analysis was conducted by integrating the entropy method, the two-way fixed effects model, and the mediation effect model. The findings reveal that: (1) Agricultural new quality productive forces exert a significantly positive driving effect on agricultural transformation and upgrading, with a regression coefficient of 0.366 significant at the 1% level. This conclusion remains robust after addressing endogeneity and undergoing multiple robustness checks. (2) The enabling effect exhibits significant regional heterogeneity, displaying a gradient pattern of “Northeast (coefficient 1.745) > East (coefficient 0.319) > Central > West” and “South (coefficient 0.288) > North” . (3) Tests on mediation mechanisms indicate that technological innovation and agricultural green total factor productivity serve as two critical transmission pathways, with Bootstrap tests confirming that both exert significant partial mediating effects. The results confirm that agricultural new quality productive forces are a key driver promoting agricultural modernization transformation. Their enabling effect is realized through the dual pathways of “technology-green” and is moderated by regional foundational conditions. Accordingly, it is recommended to implement differentiated regional policies and strengthen the synergy between technological innovation and green transformation to comprehensively enhance the enabling efficiency.