农业产业集聚对农业经济韧性的影响机制研究以长三角地区为例

Research on the Mechanism of the Impact of Agricultural Industrial Agglomeration on Agricultural Economic Resilience:Taking the Yangtze River Delta Region as an Example

  • 摘要: 在外部风险冲击频发与乡村振兴战略深化推进的现实背景下,探究农业产业集聚对农业经济韧性的作用,对提升农业经济冲击应对能力、维护农业安全、推动农业高质量发展及助推农业强国建设具有重要现实意义。本研究以2010—2023年长三角地区41个地级市的面板数据为基础,运用双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型及空间计量方法,实证探讨农业产业集聚对农业经济韧性的作用机理。研究结果表明:农业产业集聚对农业经济韧性存在显著正向促进作用,经多重稳健性检验后结论依然可靠;农业技术效率构成农业产业集聚促进农业经济韧性的核心传导路径,农业技术进步的中介传导效应不显著;农业产业集聚对农业经济韧性的影响存在显著正向空间溢出效应,本地农业产业集聚可带动邻近地区农业经济韧性提升;异质性分析显示,非农业大市的集聚促进效应强于农业大市,中级阶段农业产业集聚对农业经济韧性的推动作用最强。为此,应优化农业产业集聚布局与产业链协同、聚焦农业技术效率提升并兼顾长期技术进步、强化空间协同以释放溢出效应、实施适配城市类型与集聚阶段的差异化发展策略,从而提升农业经济韧性、助力农业强国建设。

     

    Abstract: Against the backdrop of frequent external risk shocks and the in-depth advancement of the rural revitalization strategy, exploring the role of agricultural industrial agglomeration in the resilience of the agricultural economy is of great practical significance for enhancing the agricultural economy’ s ability to cope with shocks, safeguarding agricultural security, promoting high-quality agricultural development, and facilitating the construction of an agricultural power. Based on the panel data of 41 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2010 to 2023, this study empirically explores the mechanism of the effect of agricultural industrial agglomeration on the resilience of the agricultural economy by using the bidirectional fixed effect model, the mediating effect model and spatial econometric methods. The research results show that agricultural industrial agglomeration has a significant positive promoting effect on the resilience of the agricultural economy. The conclusion remains reliable after multiple robustness tests. The efficiency of agricultural technology constitutes the core transmission path for agricultural industrial agglomeration to promote the resilience of the agricultural economy, while the mediating transmission effect of agricultural technological progress is not significant. The impact of agricultural industrial agglomeration on the resilience of the agricultural economy has a significant positive spatial spillover effect. The local agricultural industrial agglomeration can drive the improvement of the resilience of the agricultural economy in neighboring areas. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the agglomeration promotion effect of non-agricultural large cities is stronger than that of agricultural large cities, and the agglomeration of agricultural industries at the intermediate stage has the strongest promoting effect on the resilience of the agricultural economy. To this end, it is necessary to optimize the layout of agricultural industrial agglomeration and the coordination of the industrial chain, focus on improving agricultural technological efficiency while taking into account long-term technological progress, strengthen spatial coordination to release spillover effects, and implement differentiated development strategies that are suitable for urban types and agglomeration stages, so as to enhance the resilience of the agricultural economy and contribute to the construction of an agricultural power.

     

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