农地规模化经营对玉米单产的非线性影响及调节机制

The Nonlinear Impact of Large-scale Farmland Management on Maize Yield and Its Moderating Mechanisms

  • 摘要: 农地适度规模经营是推进农业现代化、保障国家粮食安全的关键路径,厘清其与粮食单产关系是兼顾农业高质量发展与粮食安全的重要命题。本文基于19个玉米主产省区市2009—2023年的数据,运用固定效应模型和Driscoll-Kraay稳健标准误的方法,探究农地规模化经营对玉米单产的影响,并对调节效应展开实证检验。研究发现:(1)农地规模化经营与玉米单产之间呈现正“U”形非线性关系,拐点出现在农地规模化经营水平为27.15%时,这一结论在经过稳健性检验后依然成立;(2)调节效应分析显示,玉米雇工数量增加会显著增强农地规模化经营对玉米单产的抑制作用,而玉米机械化提高、农业社会化服务增加对“规模—单产”关系的调节作用并不显著。因此,为了协调农地规模化经营与粮食安全,需要破除规模导向、建立动态分类支持体系,强化机械化与社会化服务基础支撑,以专业化服务与智能装备,破解田间管理成本困境。

     

    Abstract: Moderate-scale operation of agricultural land is a key path to advancing agricultural modernization and safeguarding national food security. Clarifying the relationship between moderate-scale agricultural land operation and grain yield per unit area is a crucial issue for balancing high-quality agricultural development and food security. Based on provincial-level data from 19 major maize-producing provinces covering the period from 2009 to 2023, this study employed a fixed-effects model with Driscoll-Kraay robust standard errors to examine the impact of large-scale farmland management on maize yield and empirically tested its moderating effects. The findings were as follows: (1) There was a positive U-shaped nonlinear relationship between large-scale farmland management and maize yield, with an inflection point occurring at a large-scale farmland management level of 27.15%; this conclusion remained valid following robustness checks. (2) Moderating effect analysis showed that an increase in hired labor for maize production significantly strengthened the inhibitory effect of large-scale farmland management on maize yield, while improvements in maize mechanization rate and agricultural socialized services did not exhibit statistically significant moderating effects on the scale-yield relationship. Therefore, to coordinate large-scale farmland management with grain security, it is necessary to move away from a scale-oriented approach and establish a dynamic, tiered support system, strengthen the foundational support of mechanization and socialized services, and address the cost challenges of field management through specialized services and intelligent equipment.

     

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