政策驱动下咖啡产业升级的促农增收效应评估基于云南县域双重差分模型的实证研究

Assessment of the Effect of Policy-driven Coffee Industry Upgrading on Promoting Farmers’ Income: An Empirical Study Based on a Double-difference Model in Yunnan Counties

  • 摘要: 作为高原特色农业现代化转型的重要突破口,咖啡产业政策效应评估对优化乡村振兴实施路径具有理论价值与实践意义。本文以云南省2019年实施的“一县一业”政策为准进行自然实验,基于2010—2023年四大示范区县域数据,构建双重差分模型,系统考察咖啡产业政策对农民收入的增收效应及其作用机制。研究结果表明:政策实施显著推动县域农民收入增长,对农民人均可支配收入具有显著而稳健的提升作用;“一县一业”政策的农民增收效应同时存在区域异质性,即区域地区农民增收效应显著强于县域地区;“一县一业”政策主要通过提供满足农民需求的政策帮扶和资金投入,促进农民增收。为此,应进一步完善政策体系,明确政策导向,抓好政策实施,注重政策倾斜,促进“一县一业”试点示范县农户收入增长。

     

    Abstract: As an important breakthrough in the modernization and transformation of plateau characteristic agriculture, the assessment of the effect of coffee industry policy has theoretical value and practical significance in optimizing the implementation path of rural revitalization. Based on the “one county one industry” policy implemented in Yunnan Province in 2019, this paper conducted a natural experiment, and a double-difference model based on the county data of the four major demonstration areas from 2010 to 2023, systematically examined the income-generating effect of the coffee industry policy on farmers’ incomes and its functioning mechanism. The results of the study showed that: the implementation of the policy significantly promoted the growth of farmers’ income in the counties, and had a significant and robust effect on the per capita disposable income of farmers; there was a regional heterogeneity in the income-generating effect of the policy of “one county one industry” , i.e., the effect of farmers’ income-generating effect in the regional areas was significantly stronger than that in the counties; and the policy of “one county one industry” had a significant impact on the income of farmers. The “one county one industry” policy promoted farmers’ income growth by providing policy support and financial inputs that meet farmers’ needs. For this reason, the policy system should be further improved, the policy orientation clarified, the implementation of the policy improved, and the tilting of the policy emphasized, so as to promote the growth of farmers’ incomes in the pilot demonstration counties of the “one county one industry” policy.

     

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