中美经贸摩擦对中国肉牛产业的影响研究

Study on the Impact of China-US Economic and Trade Friction on China’ s Beef Cattle Industry

  • 摘要: 中国牛肉消费需求旺盛且进口依赖度高,探究贸易摩擦对肉牛产业的影响对实现产业高质量发展具有重要价值。本文基于全球动态一般均衡模型(GDyn)分析中美贸易摩擦对我国肉牛产业的影响。研究结果表明:第一,中美贸易政策的强度显著影响进口牛肉市场的结构与价格,并因产品异质性而产生分化效应。在极端关税情景下,我国牛肉产品进口市场出现巨大供给缺口,且国内产能难以有效填补,同时国内牛肉产品面临价格进一步下跌风险。第二,中间产品的可替代性差异制约国内产能填补缺口,高端产品低替代弹性与中间品供应链脆弱性共同放大了外部冲击。第三,关税政策强度直接影响牛肉产品市场均衡的调整。极端关税政策引发了进口市场的结构性风险并且加剧国内市场的供需失衡问题,而经贸协商后的关税政策推动了进口来源多元化,为国内产能释放创造了稳定的外部环境,推动国内产能与产品价格形成良性互动,增强了产品市场的韧性。

     

    Abstract: China exhibits robust beef consumption demand and a high degree of import dependence. Investigating the impact of trade friction on the beef cattle industry is therefore of significant value for achieving high-quality development within the sector. This paper analysed the effects of China-US trade friction on China’ s beef industry using the Global Dynamic General Equilibrium Model (GDyn). The findings indicated: Firstly, the intensity of China-US trade policies significantly affected the structure and prices of the imported beef market, with effects diverging due to product heterogeneity. Under an extreme tariff scenario, a substantial supply gap emerged in the import market for beef products, which domestic production capacity struggled to fill effectively, while domestic beef products simultaneously faced the risk of further price depreciation. Secondly, disparities in the substitutability of intermediate products constrained the domestic capacity from filling the gap; the low elasticity of substitution for high-end products and the vulnerability of intermediate product supply chains collectively amplified the external shock. Thirdly, the intensity of the tariff policy directly influenced the adjustment of the beef product market equilibrium. Extreme tariff policies provoked structural risks in the import market and exacerbated domestic supply-demand imbalances. In contrast, tariff policies implemented following trade negotiations promoted import source diversification, created a stable external environment for the release of domestic capacity, fostered a virtuous interaction between domestic output and product prices, and enhanced the resilience of the product market.

     

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