基于空间马尔科夫链的云南省粮食生产韧性空间溢出效应与动态演化研究

Dynamic Evolution Trend of Grain Production Resilience in Yunnan Province Based on Spatial Markov Chain

  • 摘要: 本研究基于 2013—2023 年云南省 16 个州市粮食生产韧性数据,综合运用熵值法、泰尔指数、重心椭圆模型、莫兰指数及马尔科夫链等方法,系统剖析粮食生产韧性的时空演变特征与动态机制。研究结果显示:云南省粮食生产韧性平均值从 2013 年的 0.1286 增长至 2023 年的 0.4065,表明粮食生产优势逐步凸显;2013—2016年标准差由0.0142扩大至0.0739,区域分化明显,2019年至2023年回落至0.0144,显示后期发展趋于均衡。分区域而言,滇西、滇北部分州市因资源优势韧性平均值超 0.3,标准差0.08—0.09,表现相对稳定,空间分化显著;滇南部分地区因产业结构单一平均值低于 0.25,标准差0.09—0.11,波动性较为明显。空间分布呈 “西北 — 东南轴向稳定、核心区集聚” 特征,重心波动与生态、变革力指标权重变化相关,韧性发展模式正逐步向多元协同驱动转型。此外,全局莫兰指数均值为 0.25,表明粮食生产韧性存在空间正相关与集聚特征,空间马尔科夫链表明邻域韧性影响转移情况,高韧性地区粮食生产韧性对中低地区有溢出效应。基于此,研究提出深化区域产业协同、推进农业科技转型、优化空间布局与完善风险防控等政策建议,为提升云南粮食生产韧性、缩小区域差距提供决策参考。

     

    Abstract: Based on the data of food production resilience of 16 prefecture-level cities in Yunnan Province from 2013 to 2023, this study comprehensively used methods such as the entropy method, Theil index, gravity center ellipse model, Moran index, and Markov chain to systematically analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and dynamic mechanisms of food production resilience. The study found that, the average value of Yunnan’ s food production resilience increased from 0.1286 in 2013 to 0.4065 in 2023, indicating that the advantages of food production have gradually become prominent. From 2013 to 2016, the standard deviation expanded from 0.0142 to 0.0739, showing obvious regional differentiation. From 2019 to 2023, it dropped to 0.0144, indicating that the later development tended to be balanced. In terms of regions, some prefecture-level cities in western and northern Yunnan had an average resilience of over 0.3 due to resource advantages, with a standard deviation of 0.08-0.09. They were relatively stable, with significant spatial differentiation. Some areas in southern Yunnan had an average value of less than 0.25 due to a single industrial structure, with a standard deviation of 0.09-0.11. The volatility was obvious. The spatial distribution was characterized by “stable northwest-southeast axis and agglomeration in core areas” . The fluctuation of the center of gravity was related to changes in the weights of ecological and transformative indicators. The resilience development model was gradually transforming into a multi-collaborative driven model. In addition, the average global Moran index was 0.25, indicating that food production resilience has spatial positive correlation and agglomeration characteristics. The spatial Markov chain showed that, the resilience of neighboring areas affected the transfer. The food production resilience of high-resilience areas had a spillover effect on medium and low areas.Based on this, the study put forward policy suggestions such as deepening regional industrial collaboration, promoting agricultural technology transformation, optimizing spatial layout, and improving risk prevention and control. It provides decision-making references for enhancing Yunnan’ s food production resilience and narrowing regional gaps.

     

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