城乡收入差距的时空演化及影响机制研究基于共富示范区浙江省的研究

Research on the Temporal and Spatial Changes of Urban-rural Income Gap and Its Influence Mechanism: Based on Co-wealthy Demonstration Zone, Zhejiang Province

  • 摘要: 城乡收入差距是共同富裕的重要观测点,研究城乡收入差距的时空演化及影响机制有助于更好理解共同富裕的实现路径与实现机制。本文基于2012—2023年浙江省11个地级市的面板数据,先利用泰尔指数测度并分析城乡收入差距的时空演化,再构建非线性回归模型研究城乡收入差距的影响机制。研究显示:无论是从时间纵向还是从区域横向上看,城乡收入差距都在不断减小;城乡收入差距主要受到农业产业集聚度的影响,后者对前者的影响呈现先降后升的“U”形;经济发展水平和农业劳动生产率作为中介变量,解释了农业产业集聚度影响城乡收入差距的中间传导过程;异质性分析表明了农业产业集聚在浙东、浙中及浙西南地区对缩小城乡收入差距的作用更为显著,而浙北地区因集聚饱和效应导致边际影响弱化。据此,未来应当建立动态监测与阈值预警机制,规避过度产业集聚所带来的负外部性作用。同时实施差异化区域调控,并加快推广农业机械化与智慧技术,设立城乡产业协作基金以提升农村经济韧性,从而缩小城乡收入差距。

     

    Abstract: The urban-rural income gap is an important observation point of common prosperity, and studying the spatial and temporal evolution of the urban-rural income gap and its influence mechanism can help to better understand the path and realization mechanism of common prosperity. Based on the panel data of 11 prefecture-level cities in Zhejiang Province from 2012 to 2023, this paper first measured and analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution of the urban-rural income gap by using the Thiel index, and then constructed a nonlinear regression model to study the impact mechanism of the urban-rural income gap. The study showed that, the urban-rural income gap was decreasing both vertically and horizontally; the urban-rural income gap was mainly affected by the degree of agglomeration of the agricultural industry, and the latter’ s influence on the former showed a “U” shape of decreasing and then increasing; the level of economic development and the productivity of agricultural labor acted as the mediator variables, explaining the impact of the degree of agglomeration of the agricultural industry on the urban-rural income gap; and the level of economic development and agricultural labor productivity acted as the mediator variables. The level of economic development and agricultural labor productivity acted as intermediary variables to explain the intermediate transmission process of agricultural industry agglomeration affecting urban-rural income gap; the heterogeneity analysis showed that, agricultural industry agglomeration played a more significant role in narrowing the urban-rural income gap in eastern Zhejiang, central Zhejiang and southwestern Zhejiang, whereas the marginal impact of the agglomeration saturation effect was weakened in the northern part of Zhejiang. Accordingly, the future should establish dynamic monitoring and threshold warning mechanism to avoid the negative externalities brought by excessive industrial agglomeration. At the same time, it should implement differentiated regional regulation, accelerate the promotion of agricultural mechanization and smart technology, and set up a fund for urban-rural industrial collaboration to enhance the resilience of the rural economy, so as to narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas.

     

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