农业新质生产力对农民增收的影响机制研究基于农村产业融合的中介效应分析

The Impact Mechanism of Agricultural New Quality Productivity on Farmers’ Income Growth: Mediating Effect Analysis Based on Rural Industrial Integration

  • 摘要: 在乡村振兴和农业农村现代化背景下,研究农业新质生产力对农民收入增长的作用机制,揭示农村产业融合在其中的中介传导效应是巩固脱贫成果、推进共同富裕的关键路径。基于2012—2022年度我国31个省级行政单位的面板数据,运用双向固定效应模型和Bootstrap中介回归模型及SEM结构方程模型,对农业新质生产力与农村产业融合对农民增收的作用路径进行系统分析。研究结果发现:(1)农业新质生产力对农民收入水平的正向影响显著,在控制区域和时间固定效应后结论仍保持稳健;(2)在农业新质生产力和农民增收之间,农村产业融合起到部分中介作用;(3)农业新质生产力在主要粮食产销区的增收作用显著。据此,应构建农业科技创新体系,深化三产融合长效机制,实施差异化区域发展战略,为实现农民增收提供助力。

     

    Abstract: In the context of rural revitalization and agricultural modernization, studying the mechanism by which agricultural new quality productivity affects farmers’ income growth, and revealing the mediating effect of rural industrial integration, is a key pathway to consolidating poverty alleviation results and promoting common prosperity. Based on the panel data of 31 provincial administrative units in my country in 2012-2022, a two-way fixed-effect model, a Bootstrap mediated regression model and a SEM structural equation model are used to systematically analyze the path of the integration of agricultural new quality productivity and rural industries on farmers’ income growth. The research results found that: (1) The positive impact of agricultural new quality productivity on farmers’ income levels is significant, and the conclusion remains stable after the control area and time fixed effects; (2) The integration of rural industries plays a partial intermediary role between agricultural new quality productivity and farmers’ income increase; (3) The income increase effect of agricultural new quality productivity in major grain production and sales areas is significant. Based on this, it is imperative to establish an agricultural science and technology innovation ecosystem, institutionalize sustainable mechanisms for tri-sector industrial convergence, and implement spatially differentiated development strategies, thereby providing a robust institutional framework to enhance farmers’ income growth through structural agricultural transformation.

     

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