农村人口老龄化、数字经济与经济增长

Rural Population Aging, Digital Economy and Economic Growth

  • 摘要: 在乡村振兴与数字中国战略并行推进的时代背景下,探究农村人口老龄化与数字经济的交织态势对我国经济增长的影响具有现实意义。以2014—2023年我国30个省级行政区的面板数据作为研究样本,使用双向固定效应模型实证分析农村人口老龄化对我国经济增长产生的影响,并使用中介效应模型检验数字经济在农村人口老龄化对经济增长的影响路径中存在的作用。研究表明:农村人口老龄化对我国经济增长存在抑制作用,其中对东部地区和第三产业经济增长的抑制作用尤为显著。同时,数字经济在农村人口老龄化影响经济增长的过程中发挥着部分中介作用,在东部地区和第三产业表现更为突出。为此,提出强化养老保障与人才支撑体系,加快数字中国全面布局与赋能以及促进区域产业协同与均衡发展的建议,以实现经济的可持续增长。

     

    Abstract: In the context of the era of rural revitalisation and the parallel promotion of the digital China strategy, it is of practical significance to explore the impact of the intertwined dynamics of rural population ageing and digital economy on China’ s economic growth. Taking the panel data of 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2014 to 2023 as the research sample, Use two-way fixed-effects model to empirically analyze the impact of rural population aging on China’ s economic growth, and use mediated-effects model to test the existence of the role of the digital economy in the path of the impact of rural population aging on economic growth.The study shows that rural population aging has an inhibitory effect on China’ s economic growth, especially on the eastern region and the tertiary economic growth. At the same time, the digital economy plays a partial intermediary role in the process of rural population aging affecting economic growth, which is more prominent in the eastern region and the tertiary industry. In this regard, suggestions are made to strengthen the pension security and talent support system, accelerate the comprehensive layout and empowerment of digital China as well as promote the synergistic and balanced development of regional industries in order to achieve sustainable economic growth.

     

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