农业新质生产力对粮食安全的影响机制以农机社会化服务为中介效应的实证研究

The Impact Mechanism of Agricultural New Quality Productivity on Food Security: An Empirical Study with Socialized Agricultural Machinery Services as A Mediating Effect

  • 摘要: 本文基于2013—2022年省级面板数据采用双向固定效应模型和机制检验模型分析农业新质生产力对粮食安全的影响及作用机制。研究表明:(1)农业新质生产力能够显著促进粮食安全,经过多种稳健性检验,结论依然成立;(2)农业新质生产力能够通过促进农机社会化服务保障粮食安全;(3)异质性分析结果表明,在粮食主产区和高财政支农规模区域,农业新质生产力显著促进粮食安全,而在非粮食主产区和低财政规模区域,农业新质生产力对粮食安全无显著影响。面对国家粮食安全的多重压力,应因地制宜发展农业新质生产力,强化农业新质生产力引领农业强国建设作用,坚决贯彻执行藏粮于技的战略方针,反思性建构调整粮食耕作制度和种植结构,全方位夯实粮食安全根基。

     

    Abstract: This study employs provincial panel data from 2013 to 2022 and adopts a two-way fixed effects model alongside a mechanism testing model to analyze the impact of new-quality agricultural productivity on food security and its underlying mechanisms. The findings reveal that: (1) New-quality agricultural productivity significantly enhances food security, a conclusion robust to multiple sensitivity tests; (2) The positive effect operates through the mediating channel of socialized agricultural machinery services; (3) Heterogeneity analysis indicates that new-quality agricultural productivity markedly improves food security in major grain-producing regions and areas with high fiscal support for agriculture, whereas its impact is statistically insignificant in non-grain-producing regions and regions with limited fiscal resources. Confronted with mounting pressures on national food security, policymakers should prioritize context-specific development of new-quality agricultural productivity, amplify its role in driving agricultural modernization, rigorously implement the “storing grain through technology” strategy, adaptively optimize farming systems and crop structures, and holistically strengthen the foundation of food security.

     

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