RCEP协定背景下云南咖啡外贸竞争力的测度与国际比较

Measurement and International Comparison of Yunnan Coffee’ s Foreign Trade Competitiveness under the RCEP Agreement

  • 摘要: 在区域全面经济伙伴关系协定的深度影响下,云南咖啡产业面临着提升国际竞争力和实现转型发展的紧迫任务。本研究综合运用扎根理论和定量分析方法,构建起多维理论框架,并借助显示性比较优势指数、贸易结合度指数和出口质量升级指数进行量化分析,同时通过多元回归模型深入剖析出口质量升级的影响机制。研究结果表明,国际期货价格波动和 RCEP 政策成熟期的制度红利,是推动云南咖啡出口质量升级的重要因素;然而,区域内的竞争压力以及汇率传导时滞对其发展形成了一定的制约。云南咖啡产业当前存在种植成本高、国际竞争优势弱、区域贸易参与度不足等问题,贸易互补性也未能有效转化为质量升级的动力。基于这些发现,本研究提出了一系列针对性的对策,如构建 “保险 + 期货” 风险对冲机制、发展精深加工产业集群、建立产业数据库等,旨在推动云南咖啡产业从 “规模扩张”向“质量跃迁”转变,为边疆农业融入区域价值链和实现产业升级提供理论与实践支撑。

     

    Abstract: Under the significant influence of the RCEP Agreement, Yunnan’ s coffee industry urgently needs to enhance its international competitiveness and achieve transformative development. This study combines grounded theory and quantitative analysis to build a multi - dimensional framework. It uses indices like RCA, TCD, and QC for quantitative analysis and a multiple regression model to explore the factors affecting export quality upgrade.The results show that international futures price fluctuations and RCEP’ s mature - stage policy dividends drive the export quality upgrade of Yunnan coffee. However, regional competition and exchange - rate - transmission lags limit its development. Currently, Yunnan’ s coffee industry has issues such as high planting costs, weak international competitiveness, and low regional - trade participation, and trade complementarity fails to boost quality upgrade. In response, this study suggests countermeasures like an “insurance + futures” risk - hedging mechanism, deep - processing industrial clusters, and an industrial database. These aim to transform the industry from “scale expansion” to “quality leap” , providing theoretical and practical support for integrating border agriculture into the regional value chain and upgrading the industry.

     

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