Abstract: Based on provincial panel data from the “top five grain-producing provinces” spanning from 2011 to 2022, this paper empirically tested the impact of the digital economy on grain production capacity and its underlying mechanisms using fixed effects and mediation effects models. Robustness and endogeneity tests were conducted by shortening the sample space, replacing explanatory variables, applying 1% winsorization, and utilizing instrumental variables. Furthermore, the threshold effect between the digital economy and grain production capacity was explored. The results revealed that, the digital economy significantly promoted grain production capacity, with field management level playing a mediating role in this process. There was a single threshold effect in the impact of the digital economy on improving grain production capacity: when the level of digital economy development was below the threshold, its impact was substantial; however, as it surpassed this threshold, the promotional effected gradually diminishes. This indicated that, the empowerment of grain production capacity by the digital economy exhibits characteristics of diminishing marginal returns. To fully leverage the driving effect of the digital economy on regional grain production capacity, it was necessary to improve regional digital economy infrastructure, promote smart agricultural management platforms to further enhance field management levels, and seize the dividend period of the digital economy to fully exploit the threshold effect.