农村人口老龄化对粮食生产的影响基于种植结构的视角

The Impact of Rural Population Aging on Food Production: From the Perspective of Planting Structure

  • 摘要: 日益显著的农村人口老龄化现象对我国粮食生产和农业可持续发展构成了严峻挑战,种植结构调整作为一种重要传导机制,能够揭示农村人口老龄化对粮食生产的影响路径。本研究基于2008—2021年省区市面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型和中介效应模型分析农村人口老龄化对粮食生产的影响及作用机制。研究表明:(1)农村人口老龄化对全国粮食生产没有明显负向影响,这一结果在进行多种稳健性检验的情况下依然成立。(2)种植结构在农村人口老龄化促进粮食生产过程中发挥完全中介效应。(3)异质性分析表明,农村人口老龄化对东部地区、中部地区和西部地区的粮食生产有显著促进作用,对东北地区粮食生产有促进作用但不显著。基于此,提出如下对策建议:一是提高粮食政策靶向精准度以保障粮食生产可持续发展,二是发展老龄化劳动力中心的社会化服务组织以提升粮食单产,三是推广老龄友好型农业机械以促进粮食生产提质增效,四是培育高素质农业从业者以奠定农业发展人才支撑。

     

    Abstract: Abstarct: The increasingly significant phenomenon of rural population aging poses a severe challenge to China’ s food production and sustainable agricultural development. As an important transmission mechanism, the adjustment of planting structure can reveal the impact path of rural population aging on food production. Based on the panel data of provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities from 2008—2021, this study used a two-way fixed-effect model and an intermediary effect model to analyze the impact and mechanism of rural population aging on food production. The results show that: (1) the aging of rural population has no obvious negative impact on national grain production, and this result still holds true under a variety of robustness tests; (2) Cropping structure plays a complete intermediary effect in the process of promoting grain production due to the aging of rural population. (3) Heterogeneity analysis showed that rural population aging had a significant effect on grain production in the eastern, central and western regions, but not significantly in the northeast region. Based on this, the following countermeasures are proposed: first, to improve the precision of food policy targeting to ensure the sustainable development of food production; second, to develop social service organizations in the center of the aging workforce to improve food yields; third, to promote aging-friendly agricultural machinery to promote the quality of food production; and fourth, to cultivate high-quality agricultural practitioners in order to lay the support for the development of agricultural talents.

     

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