新时代以来我国农村劳动力转移就业政策效应评估研究

Study on the Evaluation of the Policy Effects of Rural Labor Transfer Employment in the New Era

  • 摘要: 农村劳动力转移就业不仅有助于优化全国劳动力资源配置,还对社会稳定和社会结构调整具有重要意义。本文基于中国30个省区市2013—2022年的面板数据,并通过对此阶段的120份农村劳动力转移就业政策进行赋值,采用经典面板回归模型,实证考察农村劳动力转移就业政策对农村劳动力转移人数(常年外出务工劳动力)和收入水平(农村居民人均可支配收入)的影响。研究结果表明:农村劳动力转移就业政策不仅在全国范围内产生了积极的总体效果,显著提升了常年外出务工劳动力数量以及农村居民人均可支配收入水平,而且在区域层面展现了政策实施的复杂性和层次性。鉴于此,本文提出了三条政策建议:(1)增强政策的区域针对性和灵活性;(2)强化政策实施监测和效果评估;(3)加大对农村地区特色产业的支持。

     

    Abstract: The transfer of rural labor force to employment is not only helpful to optimize the allocation of labor resources in China, but also has great significance for social stability and social restructuring. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2013 to 2022, this paper empirically examines the impact of rural labor transfer employment policies on the number of rural labor transfer (perennial migrant labor) and income level (per capita disposable income of rural residents) by assigning values to 120 rural labor transfer employment policies at this stage, and using the classical panel regression model. The results show that the rural labor transfer employment policy not only has a positive overall effect on the whole country, significantly increasing the number of perennial migrant workers and the per capita disposable income of rural residents, but also shows the complexity and hierarchy of policy implementation at the regional level. In view of this, this paper proposes three policy recommendations: (1) enhance the regional relevance and flexibility of policies; (2) strengthen the monitoring and effectiveness evaluation of policy implementation; (3) Increase support for characteristic industries in rural areas.

     

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