安徽省新型城镇化与生态韧性耦合协调发展及影响因素研究

the Coupling and Coordinated Development of New-type Urbanization and Ecological Resilience in Anhui Province and Influencing Factors

  • 摘要: 为探究安徽省16地市2012—2022年新型城镇化与生态韧性耦合协调发展特征及影响因素,文章建立指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型,核密度估计法,空间自相关分析,地理探测器展开研究。结果表明:研究期内安徽省新型城镇化与生态韧性水平整体呈现稳步上升的良好态势;研究期内两系统耦合度始终处于高水平耦合阶段,耦合协调度由勉强协调发展阶段进入中级协调发展阶段;研究期内两系统耦合协调度在空间格局上表现为由“中部高,外围低”向“南高北低”演变的特征;研究期内两系统耦合协调度总体呈现明显的空间正相关性,H-H集聚区主要位于南部,L-L聚集区主要位于北部;安徽省新型城镇化与生态韧性耦合协调发展受多因子共同驱动,在单一影响因子探测中,经济发展水平、产业结构调整、污染物处理能力等因子为主要驱动因素;在交互影响因子探测中,各因子之间存在显著的交互增强效应,其中经济发展与其他因子交互作用最强。据此,提出安徽省新型城镇化与生态韧性耦合协调发展水平提升的相关策略与建议。

     

    Abstract: In order to explore the characteristics and influencing factors of the coupling and coordinated development of new urbanization and ecological resilience in 16 cities in Anhui Province from 2012 to 2022, this paper established an index system and conducted research using the coupling and coordination degree model, kernel density estimation method, spatial autocorrelation analysis and geographic detector. The results showed that the new-type urbanization and ecological resilience of Anhui Province showed a good trend of steady increase during the study period. During the study period, the coupling degree of the two systems is always in the high level coupling stage, and the coupling coordination degree enters the intermediate stage from the barely coordinated development stage. During the study period, the coupling degree of coordination between the two systems varies in spatial patterns, from “mid-high” to “low edge” to “low south” and “low north” . During the study period, The combination of feedbacks from both systems shows a clear positive correlation. The H-H cluster was mainly located in the south, and the L-L cluster was mainly located in the north. The coupling and coordinated development of new-type urbanization and ecological resilience in Anhui province is driven by multiple factors. In the detection of a single impact factor, economic development level, industrial structure adjustment, pollutant treatment capacity and other factors are the main driving factors. In the interaction factor detection, there is a significant interaction enhancement effect among the factors, among which the interaction between economic development and other factors is the strongest.On this basis, strategies and proposals have been developed to improve integration and the level of development compatible between new urbanisation and the state's ecological resilience.

     

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