我国农业碳排放基本现状及影响因素研究

Research on the Basic Status and Driving Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in China

  • 摘要: 基于农业能源利用、农用物资投入、水稻种植和畜禽养殖四大农业碳排放源测算我国2013—2022年的农业碳排放,并运用LMDI模型对我国农业碳排放进行影响因素分解。结果表明:2013—2022年我国农业碳排放量呈现波动式下降趋势,碳排放强度呈现持续下降趋势,农业碳排放的总量和强度省际差异比较明显。农业生产效率因素能有效抑制农业碳排放,农村经济发展因素是导致我国农业碳排放量增加的主要因素,且是各分解变量中唯一正向驱动碳排放量增加的因素。进而提出减少农业碳排放,促进农业高质量发展应从推广农业科技、加快农业农村环境治理和引导省际减排互动等方面协同推进等建议。

     

    Abstract: This article calculated China’ s agricultural carbon emissions from 2013 to 2022 based on four major agricultural carbon emission sources: agricultural energy utilization, agricultural material input, rice cultivation, and livestock and poultry breeding. The LMDI model was used to decompose the influencing factors of China’ s agricultural carbon emissions. The results showed that, from 2013 to 2022, China’ s agricultural carbon emissions showed a fluctuating downward trend, and the carbon emission intensity showed a continuous downward trend. The total amount and intensity of agricultural carbon emissions showed significant inter provincial differences. The factor of agricultural production efficiency could effectively suppress agricultural carbon emissions, and the factor of rural economic development was the main factor leading to the increase of agricultural carbon emissions in China, and it was the only positive driving factor for the increase of carbon emissions among various decomposition variables. Furthermore, it was proposed that, reducing agricultural carbon emissions and promoting high-quality agricultural development should be promoted through collaborative efforts such as promoting agricultural technology, accelerating agricultural and rural environmental governance, and guiding inter provincial emission reduction interactions.

     

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