中国农业高质量发展水平评价、时间演进及空间相关性分析

Evaluation of Agricultural High-quality Development Level, Regional Difference and Spatial Correlation Analysis in China

  • 摘要: 本文基于新发展理念,从创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五个维度构建农业高质量发展指标体系,依据2012—2021年宏观数据,测算我国30个省区市的农业高质量发展水平,利用非参数核密度估计及空间马尔科夫链分析农业高质量发展水平时间演进特征分布,通过莫兰指数分析各省区市之间的空间关系。得出结论:(1)我国农业高质量发展水平近年来持续上升,年增长率约为1.751%,三大地区的农业高质量发展水平存在差异,呈由东到西递减的趋势;(2)省域间农业高质量发展水平差异不断缩小,各省农业高质量发展水平一定程度上可以向邻近状态转移;(3)各省农业高质量发展水平呈显著的空间正相关关系,空间聚集性不断增强,空间聚集分化现象有向高—高集聚发展的趋势。据此提出了优化农业发展环境、加强区域交流合作、建立风险评估预警机制、落实协调发展战略等建议。

     

    Abstract: Based on the new development concept, this paper constructed a high-quality agricultural development index system from the five dimensions of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing, and based on the 2012-2021 macro-data, non-parametric kernel density estimation and spatial Mark off chain were used to analyze the time evolution characteristics of agricultural high-quality development level in 30 provinces of our country, the Molain index analysed spatial relationships between provinces. The conclusions were as follows: (1) The level of agricultural high-quality development in our country had been increasing continuously in recent years, the annual growth rate was about 1.751% , there were differences in the level of agricultural high-quality development in the three regions, showing a decreasing trend from east to west. (2) The difference of agricultural high-quality development level among provinces was narrowing, and the agricultural high-quality development level of each province could be transferred to the neighboring state to a certain extent. (3) There was a significant positive spatial correlation between the development level of high-quality agriculture in all provinces, and the spatial clustering was increasing. The phenomenon of spatial clustering and differentiation had a tendency of high-high clustering. Some suggestions were put forward, such as optimizing agricultural development environment, strengthening regional exchange and cooperation, establishing risk assessment and early warning mechanism, and implementing coordinated development strategy.

     

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