中国农业技术进步对农业碳排放强度的影响及作用机制分析

Analysis of the Impact and Mechanism of China’ s Agricultural Technological Progress on Agricultural Carbon Eemission Intensity

  • 摘要: 为探明农业技术进步对农业碳排放强度的影响效应及作用机制,首先对其影响效应及作用机制做出理论分析并设置三个假设,然后基于2009—2021年30个省区市面板数据,运用双固定效应模型、中介效应模型进行实证分析。结果显示:2009—2021年我国农业碳排放强度从0.443(104t/108元)持续下降到0.234(104t/108元),下降了47.2%。农业技术进步对农业碳排放强度的影响系数为−0.152,表明农业技术进步率每提高1%将使农业碳排放强度减少0.152%。研究表明:第一,农业技术进步对农业碳排放强度具有显著的负向影响;第二,农业技术进步通过降低农业化学化水平从而降低农业碳排放强度;第三,农业技术进步通过提高农业产值水平从而降低农业碳排放强度。本文验证农业技术进步能降低农业碳排放强度,完善了农业碳排放强度影响因素体系,促进绿色农业技术进步,同时为农业科技创新方向提供降低农业化学化水平和提高农业产值两个参考。

     

    Abstract: In order to explore the impact and mechanism of agricultural technological progress on agricultural carbon emission intensity, this paper first made a theoretical analysis of its impact effect and mechanism and set up three hypotheses, and then used the double fixed effect model and the mediating effect model to conduct an empirical analysis based on the panel data of 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities from 2009 to 2021. The results showed that, first, the progress of agricultural technology had a significant negative impact on agricultural carbon emission intensity. Second, advances in agricultural technology could reduce the carbon emission intensity of agriculture by reducing the level of agricultural chemistry. Third, advances in agricultural technology could reduce the carbon intensity of agriculture by increasing the level of agricultural output value. This paper verified that, the progress of agricultural technology could reduce the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions, improved the system of influencing factors of agricultural carbon emission intensity, promoted the progress of green agricultural technology, and provided two references for reducing the level of agricultural chemistry and increasing the output value of agricultural science and technology.

     

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