安徽省生态系统服务价值与景观生态风险时空协同研究

Study on Spatio-temporal Synergy between Ecosystem Service Value and Landscape Ecological Risk in Anhui Province

  • 摘要: 摸清生态系统服务价值家底,科学防范治理生态风险,可为地区在“两山”政策背景下保障绿色可持续发展提供理论支撑,给出化人地“矛盾”为“和谐”思路。鉴于近20年间安徽省经济增长突出、人地矛盾凸显,以安徽省为研究区域,基于2000—2020年土地利用数据,构建生态系统服务价值、景观生态风险评价模型,综合运用空间相关分析、地理加权回归及地理探测器等研究方法,探究安徽省生态系统服务价值与景观生态风险的时空演变趋势及空间影响关系。 结果表明:(1)20年间安徽省生态系统服务价值(ESV)下滑明显, 流域与山区价值较高,中部北部耕地价值较低,景观生态风险(ERI)在20年间逐渐好转。(2)研究区ESVERI的莫兰指数显著降低,高—高、低—高聚集区减少,且ESVERI的激化作用显著减弱。(3)自然、社会因素均能显著驱动ESVERI则主要受自然因素驱动。研究表明生态系统稳定性对ESVERI间的关系有显著影响,未来应持续保护南部山区林地,重点治理境内水域生态环境,提升草地景观整体性,科学划定城镇开发边界,增强安徽省生态系统稳定度。

     

    Abstract: Mapping the value of ecosystem services and scientifically preventing and managing ecological risks can provide theoretical support for guaranteeing green and sustainable development in the context of the “two mountains” policy, and give the idea of transforming the “contradiction” between people and land into “harmony” . In view of the outstanding economic growth in Anhui Province in the past 20 years, the contradiction between people and land had been highlighted, so we took Anhui Province as the study area, constructed ecosystem service value and landscape ecological risk evaluation model based on the land use data from 2000 to 2020, comprehensively utilized the spatial correlation analysis, geographically-weighted regression and geographic detector and other research methods, explored the spatial and temporal evolution trend and spatial influence relationship between ecosystem service value and landscape ecological risk in Anhui Province. The results showed that: (1) The value of ecosystem services in Anhui Province declined significantly during the 20 years, with higher values in watersheds and mountainous areas, lower values for cultivated land in the central and northern parts of the province, and a gradual improvement in landscape ecological risks during the 20 years. (2) The Moran’ s index of ESV and ERI in the study area was significantly reduced, with fewer areas of high-high and low-high aggregation, and the radicalization of ERI by ESV was significantly attenuated. (3) Natural and social factors can both significantly drive ESV, while ERI is primarily driven by natural factors. The study showed that, ecosystem stability had a significant effect on the relationship between ESV and ERI. In the future, we should continue to protect the forest land in the southern mountainous areas, focus on the management of the ecological environment of the waters within the territory, enhance the wholeness of the grassland landscape, and scientifically demarcate the development boundary of cities and towns, so as to enhance the stability of the ecosystem in Anhui Province.

     

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