云南省绿色税收的经济效应研究

The Economic Effects of Green Taxation in Yunnan Province

  • 摘要: 税收是调节企业污染行为的宏观经济手段。本文基于2000—2020年云南省绿色税收和经济数据,利用向量自回归(VAR)模型,实证研究云南省绿色税收的经济效应。研究发现,云南省绿色税收的经济效应是动态变化的;短期看,绿色税收的增加能够带动GDP 的增长,但也会导致CPI和失业率的上升;长期看,绿色税收对云南省经济增长的影响逐渐减弱,会受到经济增长、价格水平、就业和投资等因素的影响,而这些因素与绿色税收之间可能存在复杂的相互作用。因此,制定绿色经济政策、投资绿色基础设施、建立生态补偿机制,是深化云南省绿色税收改革,推进绿色经济发展的重要举措。

     

    Abstract: Taxation is a macroeconomic means of regulating the polluting behavior of enterprises. Based on the green tax and economic data of Yunnan Province from 2000 to 2020, this paper empirically studied the economic effect of green taxation in Yunnan Province by using vector autoregression (VAR) model. It was found that, the economic effect of green taxation in Yunnan Province was dynamic. In the short term, the increase in green taxes could drive GDP growth, but it would also lead to an increase in CPI and unemployment; In the long run, the impact of green taxation on Yunnan’ s economic growth would gradually weaken, which would be affected by factors such as economic growth, price levels, employment and investment, and there may be complex interactions between these factors and green taxation. Therefore, formulating green economy policies, investing in green infrastructure, and establishing ecological compensation mechanisms were important measures to deepen the green tax reform in Yunnan Province and promote the development of green economy.

     

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