安徽县域粮食生产时空特征及影响因素研究

Study on Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Grain Production in Anhui County

  • 摘要: 基于1980—2020年安徽省相关数据分析其粮食生产时空特征,采用空间自相关研究安徽县域粮食空间相关性,使用重心迁移模型与面板回归模型,明晰产量迁徙路径与影响因素,从而刻画空间格局变化。结果表明:安徽省粮食总产情况向好,水稻、小麦作为主要粮食地位不动摇,玉米逐渐成为主粮之一;安徽省粮食生产空间集聚性加强,形成“北高南低”的空间格局;安徽省粮食产量重心向北迁移,水稻、小麦、玉米产量重心有向北、东南和西南方向移动的趋势;粮食产量受多重因素影响,其中积温、地均农业产值、地均化肥、地均农药、日照时长是主要因素。建议重点关注皖北粮食产量高值集聚地区的资源优化,并制定应对气候变化的措施,加大科学技术投入,同时加强区域协调发展以提高安徽省粮食生产的效率与质量。

     

    Abstract: Based on the provincial data from 1980 to 2020, this paper analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of grain production in Anhui Province, used spatial autocorrelation to study the spatial correlation of grain in Anhui counties, and used the center of gravity migration model and panel regression model to clarify the migration paths and influencing factors of grain production, so as to characterize the changes of spatial patterns.The results showed that, the total grain production in Anhui Province was improving, and the status of rice and wheat as the main grains remained unshaken, while corn gradually became one of the main grains; the spatial agglomeration of grain production in Anhui Province had strengthened, forming a spatial pattern of “high in the north and low in the south” ; the center of gravity of grain production in Anhui Province had moved northward, and the center of gravity of rice, wheat and corn production had moved northward, southeast and southwest. Grain production was affected by multiple factors, of which cumulative temperature, average land value of agricultural production, average land value of fertilizer, average land value of pesticides, and hours of sunshine were the main factors.Therefore, it was recommended to focus on resource optimization in the high-value concentration area of grain production in northern Anhui Province, and to develop measures to cope with climate change, increase scientific and technological investment, and strengthen regional coordinated development to improve the efficiency and quality of grain production in Anhui Province.

     

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