山东省城镇化质量时空演变及障碍度分析

Spatial-temporal Evolution and Obstacle Degree Analysis of Urbanization Quality in Shandong Province

  • 摘要: 从人口城镇化、经济城镇化、社会城镇化、空间城镇化、生态城镇化5个方面构建城镇化质量指标体系,采用熵值法确定指标权重,对山东省2011—2020年的城镇化质量进行了综合测度,利用Arc—GIS软件对山东省城镇化质量发展的时空特征进行了分析,最后引入障碍度模型,用以研究影响山东省城镇化质量的障碍因素。结果表明:(1)从省级尺度城镇化质量时序变化来看,2011—2020年山东省城镇化质量总体呈上升趋势,子系统层面的城市化质量多年平均值为:社会城镇化>空间城镇化>人口城镇化>经济城镇化>生态城镇化。(2)从市级尺度城镇化质量空间演变来看,2011—2020年山东省各地区城镇化质量持续提高,内部差异逐步缩小,逐渐形成以济南和青岛为“双核心”的区域聚集发展格局和“东高西低”的城镇化质量格局。(3)从山东省城镇化质量障碍度分析来看,建成区面积(C11)、每万人高等学校在校学生数(C9)、社会消费品零售总额(C7)是影响山东省城镇化质量的主要障碍因子,并依此提出相应对策建议。

     

    Abstract: The urbanization quality index system was constructed from five aspects: population urbanization, economic urbanization, social urbanization, spatial urbanization and ecological urbanization. The entropy method was used to determine the index weight, and the urbanization quality of Shandong Province from 2011 to 2020 was comprehensively measured. The spatial and temporal characteristics of urbanization quality development in Shandong Province were analyzed by Arc-GIS software. Finally, the obstacle degree model was introduced to study the obstacle factors affecting the urbanization quality of Shandong Province. The results showed that : (1) From the temporal change of urbanization quality at the provincial level, the urbanization quality of Shandong Province in 2011—2020 was generally on the rise. The multi-year average of urbanization quality at the subsystem level was: social urbanization > spatial urbanization > population urbanization > economic urbanization > ecological urbanization. (2) From the spatial evolution of urbanization quality at the municipal level, the quality of urbanization in various regions of Shandong Province continued to improve from 2011 to 2020, and the internal differences gradually narrowed, gradually forming a regional agglomeration development pattern with Jinan and Qingdao as the “double core” and a urbanization quality pattern of “high in the east and low in the west” . (3) From the analysis of the obstacle degree of urbanization quality in Shandong Province, the built-up area (C11), the number of college students per 10,000 people (C9), and the total retail sales of social consumer goods (C7) were the main obstacle factors affecting the quality of urbanization in Shandong Province, and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.

     

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