基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的耕地安全评价及障碍因子诊断

Cultivated Land Safety Evaluation and Obstacle Factor Diagnosis Based on DPSIR-TOPSIS Model

  • 摘要: 做好耕地安全评价及影响耕地安全障碍因子诊断,可以有效为耕地安全的可持续发展提供依据。在对山东省2000—2020年间耕地数据标准化处理的基础上,选用熵值法和层次分析法确定指标权重,并基于DPSIR模型以过去20年耕地数据为原始数据,应用改进TOPSIS模型和障碍度模型科学分析山东省耕地安全现状,对其障碍因子进行诊断。研究表明:(1)山东省过去20年间耕地安全总体呈现稳中向好的态势,但是评价指数一直低于0.6;(2)分维度来看,驱动力层和影响层呈现上升趋势;压力层则呈现下降的态势;状态层和响应层的变化则比较曲折;(3)压力层、状态层和影响层对于山东省耕地安全影响较大,而驱动力层和响应层则影响较小;(4)人均农业产出效益、人均GDP 、第一产业比率、农业从业人口比率、农用薄膜使用量等是影响耕地安全的主要障碍因子。耕地保护政策、社会经济的发展以及科学技术的进步都会促使耕地安全障碍因子发生变化。

     

    Abstract: Doing a good job of cultivated land security evaluation and the diagnosis of obstacles affecting cultivated land security can effectively improve the current situation of cultivated land security and provide a basis for the sustainable development of cultivated land security. Based on the standardized processing of cultivated land data in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2020, entropy method and analytic hierarchy process are selected to determine the index weight. Based on DPSIR model, taking the cultivated land data of the past 20 years as the original data, the improved TOPSIS Model and obstacle model are applied to scientifically analyze the current situation of cultivated land security in Shandong Province and diagnose its obstacle factors. The research shows that: (1) In the past 20 years, the cultivated land security in Shandong Province has generally shown a stable and positive trend, but the evaluation index has been lower than 0.6; (2) From the perspective of dimensions, the driving force layer and influence layer show an upward trend, the pressure layer shows a downward trend, the changes of state layer and response layer are tortuous; (3) The pressure layer, state layer and influence layer have great influence on cultivated land security in Shandong Province, while the driving force layer and response layer have little influence; (4) The per capita agricultural output benefit, per capita GDP, the proportion of primary production, the proportion of agricultural employed population and the use of agricultural film are the main obstacle factors affecting the safety of cultivated land. Cultivated land protection policy, socio-economic development and scientific and technological progress will promote the change of cultivated land security obstacle factors.

     

/

返回文章
返回