农业生产性服务业集聚、城镇化与农民就业增长关联研究

The Association between Agricultural Productive Service Agglomeration, Urbanization and Farmers’ Employment Growth

  • 摘要: 选取2003—2019年浙江省各市的面板数据,建立PVAR模型,使用脉冲响应函数与方差分解方法,考察浙江省不同区域内农业生产性服务业集聚、农民就业增长、城镇化的长期动态影响。结果表明:农业生产性服务业集聚、农民就业增长、城镇化三者均具有自我发展的惯性;农业生产性服务业集聚在浙东北片区正向作用于农民就业增长,在浙西南则产生抑制性效果;浙东北地区城镇化抑制农民就业增长,而浙西南的城镇化对农民就业具有促进作用;浙东北、浙西南地区的城镇化与农业生产性服务业集聚之间呈正向促进关系。因此,应强化农民就业对集聚的正向效应;统筹省域内农业生产性服务业集聚式发展;完善城乡联动机制,促进集聚、就业、城镇化三者良性互动、协同发展。

     

    Abstract: This paper selects panel data of Zhejiang cities from 2003—2019, establishes a PVAR model, and uses impulse response function and variance decomposition methods to examine the long-term dynamic effects of agricultural productive service industry agglomeration, farmers’ employment growth, and urbanization in different regions of Zhejiang Province. The results show that the agglomeration of the agricultural production service industry, farmers’ employment growth, and urbanization all have self-developing inertia. The agglomeration of the agricultural production service industry positively affects farmers’ employment growth in northeastern Zhejiang Province but inhibits it in southwestern Zhejiang Province. Urbanization in northeastern Zhejiang Province inhibits farmers’ employment growth, while urbanization in southwestern Zhejiang Province promotes farmers’ employment. The relationship between urbanization in northeastern Zhejiang Province and southwestern Zhejiang Province and the urbanization in the northeast and southwest Zhejiang has a positive relationship with the agglomeration of agricultural productive services. Therefore, we suggest: the positive effect of farmers’ employment on agglomeration should be strengthened; the agglomeration development of the agricultural production service industry in the province should be coordinated; the urban-rural linkage mechanism should be improved to promote the positive interaction and synergistic development of agglomeration, employment, and urbanization.

     

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