欠发达地区灾害风险对农户收入脆弱性的影响研究兼论普惠保险扶贫长效机制的构建

The Impact of Disaster Risk on Farmers’ Income Vulnerability in Underdeveloped Areas:The Construction of A Long-term Effective Mechanism of Inclusive Insurance for Poverty Alleviation

  • 摘要: 在精准扶贫向乡村振兴过渡的当下,如何防止因灾、因病返贫更值得关注,收入和家庭生计可持续是脱贫机制长效的关键。本文构建了“外来风险—收入脆弱性—贫困长效治理”的分析框架,基于云南省镇雄县四个乡镇的实地调研数据,在控制其他因素的条件下,分析外来风险对收入脆弱性的影响。结果表明:外来风险会显著增加农户收入脆弱性,冲击家庭生计资本的可持续性,这种影响和冲击呈现出明显的收入禀赋效应、阈值效应和异质性;农户面对风险的盲目自信、过度依赖成为低收入家庭收入高脆弱性另一重要原因;家庭收入约束和缺乏主观能动性共同导致农户普遍不借助市场工具来化解冲击。因此,探索培育政府和市场共同作用的普惠保险扶贫长效机制对由于外来风险导致的贫困长效治理有重要意义。

     

    Abstract: At the moment when precision poverty alleviation is transitioning to rural revitalization, how to prevent the rural households return to poverty due to disasters and illnesses is more worthy of attention, in which sustainable income and livelihoods for households plays an important role. This paper constructed an analysis framework of “external risks—income vulnerability—long-term poverty governance” and analyzed the impact of external risks on income vulnerability based on field survey data of four towns in Zhenxiong County of Yunnan Province, under the condition of fully controlling other influencing factors. The results show that external risks will significantly increase the income vulnerability of rural households and impact the sustainability of family livelihood capital. At the same time, this impact shows obvious income endowment effect, threshold effect and heterogeneity. In addition, Households’ blind self-confidence and excessive dependence on the government have become another important reason for the high vulnerability of low-income families. As a result, households generally do not use market tools to defuse the impact due to income constraints and lack of subjective initiative. So, exploring the long-term poverty alleviation mechanism of inclusive insurance that cultivates the joint action of the government and the market is of great significance to the long-term poverty governance caused by external risks.

     

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