Evaluation of the Risk of Land Circulation Based on ISM Model

Using the ISM model, we studied the risks of land circulation. The results showed that:(1) the variation degree of agriculture land, agriculture output, agriculture product prices and plastic film,pesticide,fertilizer usage changes are the source of land circulation,which the most core are variation degree of agriculture land,agriculture output and agriculture product prices. (2)The level risks of land circulation include:L1 is the risk factors of mass incidents which is the highest level of risk; L2 is the risk factors of the variation degree of geordie coefficient and the growth rate of urban pressure index which is the second level of risk; L3 is the risk factors of the variation degree of farmers' income and the growth rate of floating population which is the third level of risk; L4 is the risk factors of the variation degree of unemployment rate which is the fourth level of risk; L5 is the risk factors of the growth rate of farmers lost land index which is the fifth level of risk; L6 is the risk factors of the variation degree of agriculture land,agriculture output,agriculture product prices and plastic film,pesticide and fertilizer usage changes which is the lowest level of risk. (3) The main measures to control land circulation risks include:strict implementation of general land use planning, control the circulation land changing of use, make full use of agricultural subsidy system, regulating the production of agricultural products and prices; rational use of plastic film,pesticide and fertilizer.